run over me it's not free

[lescandinave]

hello guys
i did not post for a while so i thought i should have another try.
Just did a couple session heads up where i lost 6-7 Bi. For sure, it's not very rare, so i won't complain.
The fact is, i think the villains i played where in god mode, like, every time they call a cbet on the flop, and an overcard come in the turn, they have it or if i make a pot size bet on the river as a bluff after being quiet for 30 hands they still call with a ridiculous hand, and of course they win because i 'm bluffing, since i don't hit any hand.
So it should be a whining post but no, my tilt control have grown up.
So here is the question. I think i will get some response, some of them will may be too simple but i will give it a try:

How can we measure the cost of giving up, and how can a succesfull action on a next street can give us all our $ back
It will be more clear with an exemple

Say i play nl10
Open IP to30 vilain call, pot si 60
Cbet flop 40, and pot is now 100

Now it comes to the point where vilain rarely fold the flop, as he often have something
If i fail with my cbet, how many time do i need to get the pot on the turn to get break even with all my missed flop c bet. I think i need the good equity vs pot ratio to be good on the turn, but what extra equity will allow to get back what i loose on the flop

So in fact, i would like to know at what point a villain can run over me on a street, and win maybe 10 pots in a row, and still think it does not matter because i only need a few win on the turn to break even

Answers like:
- stop c betting on the flop as a bluff since you don't have fold equity, ans bet marginal made hands
- play another villain
- continue cbetting, his luck will end, and as long as your bankroll is big enoug you'll eventually see the luck turning
- dont adjust to luck factors
All these answers must be good and i'll still be thankfull for those but what i want is to know that i can stay at the table with a luckbox for a while, let him run over me and still know i only need a few good spots to be break even (or better) with all the luky hands he hit.And so if i know how to be break even with only a few hands won, i know i can stay at the table and wait for the good cards.
So, sorry for the long post
Hope you'll get what i mean,and although this post can seem useless, i think it will become more an more important as we go up the stakes and find agressive player who seems to run very good, who always put much pressure on you, but to whom you will fail to answer with aggression.



In my imagination, your answers would be something like
If you cbet with a 2/3 pot size bet: Your moove will be break even if he fold a 2/3 pot size bet on the turn 2 time out of three, or if he raises you 1 times out of 4 on the flop and you win the hand, or if you bet on the next street and he calls with a worse hand 1 time out of 2

Thank you, and sorry for my bad english

[JamesMa]

well if you think someone is folding a lot on the turn to bets then it doesnt really matter what they are calling on the flop with and how much is bet.

Looking at things by street and how often a bet has to work to break even, if someone bets 1/2 pot they only need it to work 1 out of 3 times. If someone bets full pot, they need it to work 1 out of 2 times. although this doesnt mean you should only fold 50% of the time when someone bets pot on a street since there are other variables to consider

[guitarizt]

At lower stakes if people aren't folding to c-bets I start looking to c-bet dry A and K high flops and mostly looking to check fold if I miss or delay c-bet more. They pay off so much when I hit it doesn't matter usually. Also I'll start c-betting more based on game flow and such since people tend to start folding if you're winning hands which doesn't make any sense but bad players do this a lot.

redjoker's math on poker series on leggo is all about the ev of c-betting. Checking is always neutral ev, but also remember if you're only c-betting 2/3 pot the c-bet only has to work 40% of the time for it to be breakeven.

I find it seems like my c-bets never work and then when I review my day later I find they're working 40-50% of the time in heads up pots.

[Mr Papagiorgio]

I just read a great explanation to answer your question. In the book Heads-up no-limit hold ‘em by Collin Moshman pub. by 2+2 he goes over this problem in part 2, sample match 1-3.

In short: DON’T be the guy giving up all the little pots. It just doesn’t work