Theoretical Steal %?

[guitarizt]

How much should I be stealing if I'm successful about 50% of the time from the button and 39% from the co? Is this something I should even be factoring into my steal %? I'm thinking I can steal about 45% from the button and I like my 27% cutoff steal but that might be too high as well. I know it's always going to depend but say there's two 20/15 regs in the blinds? How about a 30/10 fish in the bb and a 19/17 reg in the sb? I feel like these scenarios happen the most and I'm wondering if I should be stealing less from the button because my co winrate is higher than button at the moment.

<edit> As a side note should I be thinking about how often I have to steal the blinds in a game where it's tough to get paid off postflop or is this not really that effective?

[robbyd86]

I think this might get better/more answers in the Poker Theory forum, so I've moved it

[robbyd86]

I think opening almost any two from the button can be profitable unless you are getting 3bet a lot. If you open every single button, then a reg will catch on and start 3betting more.... but until then i usually just fire away unless i have complete garbage.

CO i open a lil less obv, but if the guy on the button is a nit i pretty much use my button range. Same rules apply w/ the blinds as stated above, you just have to factor in one extra player.

I know this is a pretty vague answer, but no one else was commenting so I'm trying to get the ball rolling. I"m not sure what a "proper" steal % is and I don't really believe in stats tbh, it's all about table dynamics. That said there is probably some math involved to find a good balance, so hopefully someone with more knowledge will reply. I will work on getting someone like that in here.

[guitarizt]

Lately I've just been opening about 85% of the button if the game is slow, I haven't opened lately, and people aren't fighting for pots, 35% if everyone stationy/bad or the blinds 3-bet too much, and about 40-60% somewhere in between. I'm not sure if it matters as much as post flop play. The margin for error is so small between opening up arguably any two cards if both blinds are each folding 80% to steals and opening a more standard range if they fold about 70% to steals each. If both blinds are folding 80% each they fold 64% of the time and if you 3x the button it only has to work 66.7% of the time to breakeven. If they fold 70% each they only fold 49% of the time.

I get what you mean about it depending on table dynamics now. It's something I had to get from experience and dropping to 4 tables, but I was too caught up in people playing static ranges from playing rush poker for most of my cash game hands. It's a lot easier now just opening by feel from game flow and the players in the blinds even though it's still based on math.

Off topic, but one thing I've noticed is that my cbets are only working about 30% of the time in hu pots when I'm the button. They're working about 40% of the time when I open from the co. I'm trying to giveup more on pots on the button where I have no equity on bad boards now because of this, but it would be nice if one of the leggo coaches could go through the theory of hands you should and shouldn't be c-betting against a typical low stakes, mid stakes, and high stakes reg. Say like AK on a T high board, or T9 on J9x. I usually find it easier to c-bet, check or bet turn as a bluff, or call rivers based on timings and bet sizing if turn checked through. It would be nice to have a more solid understanding of when I want to check flop call turn and river, bet flop bet turn and call river, or bet flop check turn call river. Right now I'm just going off game flow, how often I've been betting flop and checking turn in the past, villain's pf range, and how aggressive villain is. For example, maybe betting T9 twice on J9xr on a brick turn is too thin against a 60/5 loose passive even if I skew my bet sizing smaller? Or is it ok to get called by QT T8 KT, bottom pair and just to get to sd?

I'm always surprised that players like aejones seem to know what to do intuitively in their videos but it would be impossible for me to guess how often someone was folding to my btn/co opens and c-bets without combing through hem. I get the result from hem, it's usually different than what I thought it'd be, and then I can kind of reverse engineer people's ranges. I used to think my button c-bets worked at least 38% of the time and probably 40%. This is over 40k hands in less than a month so I think the sample size is big enough.

One thing I have noticed is that my turn and river bets work way less in general and especially on the button so I'm trying to go for thinner value and giving up more on the flop. I feel obligated to barrel good turn cards but it's usually not profitable unless I have at least 6 outs.

[Diginet]

Hello forgive me if I'm wrong this is an area of my game I'm working on. If a game is 3bet or fold for simplicity If you open a PSB you the table as a whole needs to 3 bet you 30% of the time or you show an instant profit. So if the blinds fold more than 70% of the time in theory you can open 100% of hands fold if 3 bet and still show a profit. Your ranges should be adjusted depending on villain and his calling frequencys. 3betting frequencys ect. .......
When cbetting. If your called on a PSB villain is giving himself around 2:1 odds on the flop there for we need to Cbet at least 66% so villain can't call PF profitably. It goes on like this to the river but the odds get less and less. Hence why we bet lots on the flop less on the turn and less on the river. Sorry if its a little hazy I would like to expand on this more when I have my notes to hand.

Thanks
Craig.