Theory: Hero calling and catching a bluff

[DOLLARIHYMY]

Hi guys!

Today a was thinking about Hero calls and bluff catching.
How do you deside when to make a call down when your hand beats just a bluff?
Is it more off math thing or based on feelings?

First I want to say that I really like Bobbofitos philosophy based on feeling type of situtations:

"yeah - generally I disdain "feel" spots, because every feeling needs to be able to be explained by something rational, or else it's a pretty poor feeling. (It's too much like a gambler that just "feels" like it will land on red) Essentially though, if I see someone do something, I'll always assume they do it (like, lets say I see someone 3 bet pocket 5s vs me) when they than 3bet me in the future, I will think 5s are in their range, but when they CC, it wont be. Until new information is brought to my attention that devalues this read.

It's essentially just using the information you have - you can't put yourself in your opponent's shoes and outthink them about "well, they did this last time, maybe they'll do the opposite the next". When people think that, I don't get it. You have information on how they act. And now you want to completely ignore it? I don't."



But lets get started and take few a example:

You think your villain is a little donkys. You have a read of the villain that donk lead is weak. You have (AcTd) in your hand
Board is F: (Th 3h 7c ) T: (5c) R: (Qc) you have bet flop and turn for value OP.
Suddenly the villain decides to insta pot lead in river.
This is a spot where I go with my feel based read and make a easy call.

Final result: The villain shows busted flush draw.

Example 2:

You dont have a lots of history with this guy but you think he is a standart tag.
Pokertrackers 150 sample hands says that hes button R is 19%
The villain opens in D, you decide to just call w black 88 in BB. Flop is (9h 5h 2d)
you C/C the flop. Turn: (6c) again you check, he bets you call. River: (Jc)
you check. He thinks a little moment and bets 3/4 pot.
Now the situation is that you got no reads about the villain only PT stats.
First you think the pot odds. You have to be about 30% of the times good to make the call. Next you put the guy to hand range 99+, 22,55,FDs and random bluff w (air).
So there is 30+3* hand combinations sets and over pairs.
(*your are not sure if he value bets TT so u acount that he bets TT half of the time)
and you think hes FD range is AXs, suited connectors:76s-KQs,one gappers 97s-AQs
two gappers KTs-AJs So there is 22 combinations of flush draws.
So you think 3:2 of the time You have worst hand. If you he bets hes busted FD w no showdown value* in the river(*He can have pair of 9 w flush draw some times, but u think he checks it back in river)
So You have to right 30% to make the call and he has 40% of the times busted flush draw. So he has to bet for bluff 3/4 (75%) of the times in river with the missed flush draw.
You think it is pretty good odds with hes random bluffs w air (overs AK etc) to make the call. So you call.

Final result: He shows KK and you loose the pot.


As you see the math is pretty complicated and you can never know ecactly the right numbers (Hand ranges and players tendenses) to calculate.
I have always tought that poker is a psychological game based on math.
Even players who claims that they dont use a lot of math in their game, uses poker math all the time, when their playing poker.
But also I really think if you practise the math it help your game alot, especially OOP game. but that is a another consept.

Lets take a one more example:

This happened in live game. Villain is little bit splashy and little bit a donk. We have lots of history. He has been seen me playing in the internet games behind my back and I have tryed to teach him little. Earlier in the evening I saw him checking back in river OP w AJ in XX9 A X board, against tight player. My tought was that it was a clear value bet. (He defended later his actions that he didnt think worst hands calls in this spot)
Now he has been pretty loose in pre. He opened in button. I was in SB w (KQs) and I decited to 3-bet BB folds villain calls. Flop (AQ7) I check, He bets. Turn: (T) It went check, check. River was (7). I checked, he bets pretty big. Only hand what I could think was better than my in logical way was AK, going pot cntrl in turn. But I also tought at the time that he didnt had the guts to pull a big bluff in this situation, so I just pitched my hand thinking he hit some kinda weard 2 pair hand or better.

Final result: He showed me a bluff (K7) or something. And I was little pissed to my self.
Later after I read bobbofitos toughts about feel based reads this hand came to my mind.

[Isura]

Example 1 is also based on math. Look at his range for playing the hand that way. It consists of lots of combos of FDs, SDs. The only flush he can have is like JTcc. Also he may not bet KQhh like this. This is a pretty easy/std call based on hand ranges and basic match. Hand 2 is tougher since he can play every strong hand that way, and thus the call is much thinner and he will valuebet enough hands to weigh his bluffs.