PLO25, Whiff! Fire 3rd barrel or c/f?

[Wools]

76hands, 30/11, dont have any solid post flop reads. HEM shows him folding to 3/4 Cbets, but I dont know if he was IP or OOP.

Villain prob has me ~25/15/2.2ish over those 76 hands and I dont remember showing anything down as PFR.


Party, $0.10/$0.25 PL Omaha Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

UTG: $27.05
Hero (CO): $25
BTN: $19.95
SB: $40.35
BB: $50.75

Pre-Flop: K 6 8 7 dealt to Hero (CO)
UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.75, BTN calls $0.75, 2 folds

Flop: ($1.85) J 3 5 (2 Players)
Hero bets $1.25, BTN calls $1.25

Turn: ($4.35) 7 (2 Players)
Hero bets $4.15, BTN calls $4.15

River: ($12.65) 5 (2 Players)

How strong can villain be flatting 2 streets IP? A set pretty much has to raise this flop unless he also has NFD, right?(in which he could wait till turn to raise) What does my hand look like after I lead flop and turn? How many rundowns/2pairs raise the turn knowing it's unlikely I have a strong made hand? 9876, 8765, 7654, JT98, JT97, T987, T986?

It feels like his range is capped and I definitely cant c/call a bet and I'm good like never when it goes check, check. Is this a decent spot to fire a third barrel or do I just take it on the chin and c/f? Am I credibly repping anything since I cant always bet the turn w/JJxx or 55xx and I'm bluffing 33xx if I lead the turn?

[BigCheesy]

I'd bet turn smaller and most likely bet river although I'm not repping much, he almost never has a hand that calls.

[Patonius2000]

His range by the river will typically consist of Jxxxx with hearts, overpairs with hearts and rundowns with hearts. I doubt he calls turn with 35xx unless it has hearts and his J5 and 35 combos should be fairly limited unless he is very loose pf which it doesn't seem he is based on OP. Lets assume he raises 64xx on the turn, a bunch of his rundown stuff is going to have a 5 in it and a lot of his smaller fds fold turn unless it has a draw to the higher straight to go with it (so 689Jhh for example). What we can deduce from this is that his range is capped(ish), he can get to the river full but it's much more likely he has a missed draw with better sd value than you.

Soooo, if you think he is very cally and passive c/f (the point about passive is if you would think he thinks the turn is a check with a set for example he will find you 3rd barrel incongruent with your 2nd barrel), if you think he can hand read/turn better sd hands in to bluffs and will vbet 5x, QQxx-AAxx then c/r and if you think he is a fairly passive L1 nit who weights his decisions too heavily on absolute hand strength then 3barrel.