PLO50: Hard Turn decision + bonus

[fash1k]

Hey, guys! Have one more intresting hand for you to discuss. This time I have monster preflop and I am playing vs. one unknown villain and really tight second one:

Party, $0.25/$0.50 PL Omaha Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

BB: $91.25
UTG: $16.25 - Unknown one
Hero (MP): $57.15
CO: $60.15
BTN: $50 - 150 hands, 19\10, Agro 1.5
SB: $67.55

Pre-Flop: J Q T K dealt to Hero (MP)
UTG raises to $1.75, Hero calls $1.75, CO folds, BTN calls $1.75, SB folds, BB calls $1.25

- I know, I can 3bet here but I found that UTG is very short and my hand is good to play in multi-pot, so, I chose to call.

Flop: ($7.25) 9 2 3 (4 Players)
BB checks, UTG bets $4, Hero calls $4, BTN calls $4, BB folds

- Call is standart, I think. Pot odds are 2.8:1, I have flush draw, backdoor another one flush draw and other backdoor straight draws.

Turn: ($19.25) 4 (3 Players)
UTG bets $10.50 and is All-In, Hero ?

- Here we are. When the turn came 4, I was so happy, because I got my second flush draw... But after UTG put all his money in the pot, I really was dissapointed what to do coz I want to play this pot but I have tight villain after me who will decide what to do (f*ck, mum said me to play in position ONLY! ). Also, this 4 closed a lot of straights and if I will call it and BTN pushes, I need to fold? Or can I push myself right now?

What is your line here?

And, as it was told, bonus hand with my explaining - really want to see your feedback:

Party, $0.25/$0.50 PL Omaha Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

SB: $102.10 - 23/15 after 84 hands but he have 35% open from SB and I saw him opening too much last 10-15 mins
Hero (BB): $62.85
UTG: $55
CO: $75.25
BTN: $94.15

Pre-Flop: 5 9 9 6 dealt to Hero (BB)
3 folds, SB raises to $1.50, Hero raises to $4.50, SB calls $3

- I know, my hand is bad but I wanted to do something with him.. As I think, it is too bad to call to look on flop and fold a lot of flops where he will easy cbet. If he will call my 3bet, I can represent AAxx, bet it myself, have initiative etc.

Flop: ($9) 3 6 5 (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $7, SB calls $7

- Wooohooo! Got It! I bet, don't think, have another opportunities.

Turn: ($23) 8 (2 Players)
SB bets $12.50, Hero calls $12.50

- hmmm, strange donk, as for me. He represent here 79xx but if so, he needs to bet more to protect himself from flush draws or 2 pairs and 1/2 pot bet is not what he needs to do. Also, I have 2 blockers, so I call.

River: ($48) J (2 Players)
SB bets $28.50, Hero calls $28.50

- He bets really fast. My thought proccess was:
if he had bluff on turn with maybe one pair or flush draw (better hands he will ch/call turn or ch/raise, not donk), and he caught his 3 outs to 2nd pair Jack, he is lucky, urgh. But if Jack was not his out, I will win (if I was right on turn, ofcourse).

Results: $105 Pot ($2 Rake)
SB showed Q 8 K K and LOST (-$52.25 NET)
Hero showed 5 9 9 6 and WON $103 (+$51 NET)

Waiting for your responses, thanks!

[Tnoyes]

*If* Both of your flush draws are the best out there (No one having A high spade draw or king high diamond draw) Then you would want the button to overshove. I think calling the turn is fine, but keep in mind your hand is a draw and a draw only. *if* your draw to both flushes is the best out there, you are better off drawing against two people than one. As played, call flop, call turn, call shove(if it happens) Thats my line.

[Sc000t]

3bet preflop with your hand you nit! I'd probably fold the flop with 4 people in and players left to act. I'd call the turn happily.

[fash1k]

Originally Posted by Sc000t

3bet preflop with your hand you nit! I'd probably fold the flop with 4 people in and players left to act. I'd call the turn happily.

Mmm, what will you do, if BTN pushes? As for me, I prefer raise/push myself coz of getting some fold equity (I am not sure about it here but I will better raise in No-Limit then call). Please, explain me where I am wrong..

[Sc000t]

I guess you could raise and try to play this heads up. Normally when I have no showdown value and need to hit, I'd like to keep others in and give myself better odds.

This is a situation where I can see raising for protection to be the best play. If BTN turned a straight then we are getting it all in regadless and it's a wash. But if he has a naked NFD he might fold to pushes which is great for us. Keeping in the NFD's from the button is something we'd like to avaoid if it's possible.

Raising or calling will boil down to how often we expect the BTN to have a better flush draw and how often we can get him to fold it with a shove. If he has the NFD 50% of the time but NEVER folds to a shove anyway...then shoving is bad becuase we also close out hands we still want in. But if we can (and we should) fold out some NFD's then shoving gets better.

I assumed that a NFD wouldn't fold to a shove but given stack sizes and the small flop/turn bets, there is enough room to get some of those to fold.

Let me ask this.

Out of the BTNs calling range preflop, what % of those hands will contain a flopped NFD?
And out of those hands, how many will fold to a shove on the turn?

I'd guess and say 10% of his hands he flats preflop will have the NFD in it, given our hand and the board. And out of that 10% of hands, maybe he'll fold half of them to a shove.

Those are random guesses by me, feel free to argue those %'s. So out of his entire preflop calling range, we're only getting hands we want to fold 5% of the time. I didn't think the value we get from that 5% outweighed the extra value we might get by getting looser calls to come along.

Thats looking at the situation from the flop though..which is a little disingenuous since we're not sure what he did after we called the flop.

If we now look at the situation from our decision point on the turn, we have extra information...the BTN called the flop. Which now makes a NFD more likely than it would when thinking about it from the situation on the flop where we have yet to see him act.

Looking at it from our TURN decision and not our FLOP decision we should think add that information into our thought process like:

Based on his preflop range, what % of those hands would just call a flop lead and a call?
And then of those hands, what % of them have the NFD in them?

Now NFD gets more weight because we've seen him call the flop bets.

Of all the times we see the BTN just flat the flop bets, he'll probably have the NFD maybe 20-30% of the time? maybe more? More than 50%?...I'm really not sure honestly. That's something we'd need to figure out.

But the X% of times we can expect the BTN to have NFD is only part of the analysis. Also, we'd have to figure out how often we can get him to fold those NFD hands. He won't fold all of them and he won't call of them either so we'd likely have to guesstimate it. Like I said before though, if he really doesn't fold it much then I think calling > raising in this spot to try and keep him in and give us odds...and implied odds from his worse flush draws. If the BTN probably has a NFD a lot of the time and we can get him to fold it a high % of the time then shoving looks better.


Thoughts?

[fash1k]

Originally Posted by Sc000t

Thoughts?

The first I want to say is: "Wow"!
I like your post, really good and lucid, thanks. Now I understand that our decision to call or push depends on:
- what is BTN`s range;
- what will he do with it when we call or push.

Before your post I thought only about my hand: I have over 25% vs. made straights, I can fold something, maybe hands which are far ahead vs. my King-high hand on this turn and that was all my thinking proccess before I pushed .

I can only add to your post that opponent is very tight preflop, he plays not a lot of starters, so, I can assume that when he will have NFD here, I don't think he will decide to fold it even if I pushes. Also, this is only PLO50 and even if he is a solid player, he can close his eyes and call. Coz of that, now I understand your logic and why call is the best play here.

But in this hand I pushed, both opponents showed me straight (without any flushdraws) and there was no happy end for me on blank river .

One more time, thanks for your clarification. You opened my eyes

[Tnoyes]

Thumbs up for scoots post. Beautiful in depth analysis.

[Sc000t]

Thanks guys, I was just trying to convey what goes through my head when trying to analyze hands.

I started writing from the perspective on the flop then realized that that line of thinking was flawed since the turn was the major decision. I left in the ramblings in though just to show how thinking from the flop to turn can really change and effect the way we view an opponent.

I'm still not really sold that calling is better than shoving but hopefully that helps detail what we need to happen in order for one line to be better than the other. Now we can talk about how often we can expect him to have the NFD and how often he'll be folding or calling or shoving when we take either line (call or shove ourselfs).


Given the results of both players having the naked straights was a great situation for fash1k.

Against two random 56** hands, we have more equity than either player at 36% vs 32% for each of theirs. Thats random 56** hands....some of those will have NFD's and blockers to our outs tho. Against naked 56** type hands...it's be even better.

Against one random 56** hand, our equity only goes up to 38% vs the 62% for the straight. So basically if we shove and win vs one player, we win about the same amount of time but we win much smaller pots. We also go from a favorite vs 2 opponents to a dog vs one.

[Sc000t]

Against a random nut straight and random NFD:

56**
As*s**

The straight has 60% equity now and both flush draws have 20%. This is obv the situaiton we'd want to avoid the most. There should be enough room in our stack sizes to raise the turn and push out naked NFD's out of the hand.

Given that the BTN was laid great odds on the flop, he can probably show up here with a wider range of hands. Even still though, not a lot hits this flop and we block the other likely spade flush draws so I think the NFD weight of his flop calling range is going to be significant. 923 flop doesn't really hit a lot of other draws in a 19/10 players range (or any players range really).

92, 93 and 23 arn't really playable combinations of hands we'll see a lot. 22/33 arn't playable pairs either and they're raising the flop just about always I'd think...same with 99.

His calling range on the flop is probably NFDs, Q hi flush draws, maybe some lower flush draws as well, random low straight/wraps and maybe some over pairs + draws or a 9*** with some draws as well.

Or for a cleaner look at it:

Nut Flush Draws
Queen High Flush Draws
Ten or lower Flush Draws
Straight/Wrap draws
Overpair + straight or flush draws (QQ** with spades or QQ45)
9*** + with flush or straight draws
Random 93/92 combos for two pair