[Sc000t]

I guess you could raise and try to play this heads up. Normally when I have no showdown value and need to hit, I'd like to keep others in and give myself better odds.

This is a situation where I can see raising for protection to be the best play. If BTN turned a straight then we are getting it all in regadless and it's a wash. But if he has a naked NFD he might fold to pushes which is great for us. Keeping in the NFD's from the button is something we'd like to avaoid if it's possible.

Raising or calling will boil down to how often we expect the BTN to have a better flush draw and how often we can get him to fold it with a shove. If he has the NFD 50% of the time but NEVER folds to a shove anyway...then shoving is bad becuase we also close out hands we still want in. But if we can (and we should) fold out some NFD's then shoving gets better.

I assumed that a NFD wouldn't fold to a shove but given stack sizes and the small flop/turn bets, there is enough room to get some of those to fold.

Let me ask this.

Out of the BTNs calling range preflop, what % of those hands will contain a flopped NFD?
And out of those hands, how many will fold to a shove on the turn?

I'd guess and say 10% of his hands he flats preflop will have the NFD in it, given our hand and the board. And out of that 10% of hands, maybe he'll fold half of them to a shove.

Those are random guesses by me, feel free to argue those %'s. So out of his entire preflop calling range, we're only getting hands we want to fold 5% of the time. I didn't think the value we get from that 5% outweighed the extra value we might get by getting looser calls to come along.

Thats looking at the situation from the flop though..which is a little disingenuous since we're not sure what he did after we called the flop.

If we now look at the situation from our decision point on the turn, we have extra information...the BTN called the flop. Which now makes a NFD more likely than it would when thinking about it from the situation on the flop where we have yet to see him act.

Looking at it from our TURN decision and not our FLOP decision we should think add that information into our thought process like:

Based on his preflop range, what % of those hands would just call a flop lead and a call?
And then of those hands, what % of them have the NFD in them?

Now NFD gets more weight because we've seen him call the flop bets.

Of all the times we see the BTN just flat the flop bets, he'll probably have the NFD maybe 20-30% of the time? maybe more? More than 50%?...I'm really not sure honestly. That's something we'd need to figure out.

But the X% of times we can expect the BTN to have NFD is only part of the analysis. Also, we'd have to figure out how often we can get him to fold those NFD hands. He won't fold all of them and he won't call of them either so we'd likely have to guesstimate it. Like I said before though, if he really doesn't fold it much then I think calling > raising in this spot to try and keep him in and give us odds...and implied odds from his worse flush draws. If the BTN probably has a NFD a lot of the time and we can get him to fold it a high % of the time then shoving looks better.


Thoughts?