Re: PLO50: Hard Turn decision + bonus
Against a random nut straight and random NFD:
56**
As*s**
The straight has 60% equity now and both flush draws have 20%. This is obv the situaiton we'd want to avoid the most. There should be enough room in our stack sizes to raise the turn and push out naked NFD's out of the hand.
Given that the BTN was laid great odds on the flop, he can probably show up here with a wider range of hands. Even still though, not a lot hits this flop and we block the other likely spade flush draws so I think the NFD weight of his flop calling range is going to be significant. 923 flop doesn't really hit a lot of other draws in a 19/10 players range (or any players range really).
92, 93 and 23 arn't really playable combinations of hands we'll see a lot. 22/33 arn't playable pairs either and they're raising the flop just about always I'd think...same with 99.
His calling range on the flop is probably NFDs, Q hi flush draws, maybe some lower flush draws as well, random low straight/wraps and maybe some over pairs + draws or a 9*** with some draws as well.
Or for a cleaner look at it:
Nut Flush Draws
Queen High Flush Draws
Ten or lower Flush Draws
Straight/Wrap draws
Overpair + straight or flush draws (QQ** with spades or QQ45)
9*** + with flush or straight draws
Random 93/92 combos for two pair
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