Where ends the variance? Serious question.

[Dreamcatcher]

Hey there,

so this is serious, I need help. I try to explain my situation.
Im a student in university. I finance myself and my girlfriend by playing poker for the last 4-5 years. I never had a lot of time to do that. I played 1/2NL very succesfully, someday 2/4 worked quite good also.
I never wanted to have a lot of money on the net, so I cashed out down to about 30 stacks most of the time.
I never was rich, but made a few ten K every year.
I think I played about 1 million hands all in all.
I play on FTP.

So, some day, I lost my bankroll. I lost about 20 stacks or so in the midstakes while running about 10 stacks under allin-EV. I moved down as one should and lost another 20 stacks on 100NL while running 10 stacks under EV again.
But that`s not the problem. I never cashed in money. I received a 5 Dollar present one day and moved up from 1/2c FL. S ocashing in on some pokerserver actually was new to me. Because I dont have a lot of money (because I used it for food, holidays, a lot of things) I decided to cash in 500 Euro (about 630 Dollar) and play 25NL again. This was supposed to be my only chance to play again, because a second cashin is out of the question. I thought this was a good idea to recover after the biggest downswing I ever had.

So here is the real problem:
I played 23400 hands on 25NL so far and I lose every hand. I run 1700bb under allin-EV while my allin-EV is negative itself, Im down 30 stacks now. (I found another 300 bucks on another pokerserver and got some rakeback, thats why Im not broke yet).
I always - this is not a joke - I always have exactly the second best hand. It seems impossible to win a pot.

So here is my question, where does the variance end? What are the odds for all of this?
I know players, big names, who played breakeven vor 100k hands, I know other players who never had a swing bigger than 20 buyins. But that`s another thing.
If you play 5/10+ and your edge is 2PTB, thats not the same as if I play 25NL.
Im not that great ok, I made about 3.2 PTB on 1/2 over 350k hands. It`s not enourmes, but it is with TV, chatting, skype, E-Mail, Tilt, surfing, 12 tabling etc. etc.
How big must my edge on 25NL be?
To make that clear, of course I don`t play my A+ game. All in all Im down about 70 stacks? Noone in the world plays A+ after this.
I dont chat and skype that much anymore. I concentrate on 4 tables. I do play good. I can almost guarentee that I am the best player at any of my tables all of the time. Although I don`t tableselect in any way, I almost never play at a table without 2-3 guys over 60vpip.
I would bet my life on that I do play +EV at this limit against these opponents.
But Im at about -7PTB right now.
I still have students. I have one student and one friend I coach. I coached him up from 10NL, he plays 100NL now very succesfully.


So, if someone has an advice for me or could even tell me that this is normal variance......
Something isn`t right anymore.

Thanks a lot

[Hatya]

Here is a calculator that will show you what is possible with variance.


http://www.evplusplus.com/poker_tool...nce_simulator/

If you are a solid 6bb/100 player, with variance it is possible to go on some downswings that will blow your mind. I did the math over 1,000,000 hands as a 6bb/100 winner and its likely that someone can go on a 50 bi downswing.

Just be honest with yourself as to what is variance and what is bad play. I am just recovering from a 12 bi downswing, and i can honestly say its not all variance. While variance plays a part, it also causes bad play to creep in to the game.

[robbyd86]

Originally Posted by Hatya

Here is a calculator that will show you what is possible with variance.


http://www.evplusplus.com/poker_tool...nce_simulator/

If you are a solid 6bb/100 player, with variance it is possible to go on some downswings that will blow your mind. I did the math over 1,000,000 hands as a 6bb/100 winner and its likely that someone can go on a 50 bi downswing.

Just be honest with yourself as to what is variance and what is bad play. I am just recovering from a 12 bi downswing, and i can honestly say its not all variance. While variance plays a part, it also causes bad play to creep in to the game.

good post, that's a cool tool.

[Probability]

30BI is pretty underrolled if you dont have a job or something.

that ev tool will show you why.

i think the just of it is you can be a 3ptbb winner and still lose over 100k hands.

[klamsauce]

I went on a 30 BI downswing 2 months ago running something like 20 BI below. You need to keep in mind though the EV stat is irrelevant. Getting AK all in against a monkey for him to show up w AA is obv a good play but the HEM EV stat doesn't calculate that. The point is that anything is possible. You can run worse than you have ever thought possible and it can go on for a long long time.
You probably don't want to hear it, but I would take some time to assess your game as well and see if maybe it's not all bad luck. I'm sure a lot of it is, but during times like these your overall game begins to suffer.
I'm sure there were a lot of spots you could have gotten away from as well as a lot of spots where you could have maximized your value better but were fearful of a cooler or something given how bad you have been running.

[RikaKazak]

Originally Posted by Hatya

Here is a calculator that will show you what is possible with variance.


http://www.evplusplus.com/poker_tool...nce_simulator/

If you are a solid 6bb/100 player, with variance it is possible to go on some downswings that will blow your mind. I did the math over 1,000,000 hands as a 6bb/100 winner and its likely that someone can go on a 50 bi downswing.

Just be honest with yourself as to what is variance and what is bad play. I am just recovering from a 12 bi downswing, and i can honestly say its not all variance. While variance plays a part, it also causes bad play to creep in to the game.

QFT

"Just be honest with yourself as to what is variance and what is bad play."

As long as you do that, you will pull out of it.

[harangutang]

Yea when on a downswing you really need to review your play thoroughly after every session and cut down on tables. Try and note spots where your play might be affected by the downswing.

[JamesMa]

May be a bit off topic but why are you financing your girlfriend? Sure pay for some of the stuff but I dunno maybe it just came across bad in translation.

Variance is a bitch and downswings really test your poker skills / confidence and the essence of being a poker player. You need to be able to focus while losing money and control your emotions. Also downswings will naturally hurt confidence and its important to build it back up through studying poker or getting coaching or speaking with other top players, etc.

[Dreamcatcher]

Thanks for all the answers so far.

Im financing my girlfriend, because we live together for 5 years and we are both students. I always made a lot more money playing as she could make working, so it was logical that I take care of the money. I hardly do anything at home, so it`s like the old fashioned roles of man goes to work, woman takes care of the house. It`s ok for both of us and much better (much more money) than the other way around.

[omfguess]

Dreamcatcher, that's a stressful situation. I wouldn't be surprised if losing has affected your play to some degree if you feel like you're under pressure etc..