Re: Novembers absurd winnings
Funny thing about run is that when you run good, you don't often notice it, but when you run bad, you definitely notice it.
Running good doesn't mean necessarily that you win all those all ins, suck out etc. Usually you run good if you get cards.
Let's say you see 50 flops as the original raiser, you cbet 37 out of those, 22 as a bluff and the rest of the hands you just give up.
You take it down every time you are bluffing and get 7 calls on the flop when you have a hand and then they fold on the turn. If the pot is 7.5 on the flop (you raised preflop to 3 and got a call + blinds), you bet 6 with a hand and 4.5 as a bluff, you have gained total of (22 + 8) * (3 +0.5 +1) + 7 * (3+0.5+1+6) - 13 * 3 = 169.5 bb.
On another day you make the same 50 raises, cbet the same 37 hands from which 22 as a bluff. You bet 6 to 7.5 pot with a hand and 4.5 as a bluff. If you get called when you are bluffing, you give up.
Now, you get called only 2 times when you have a hand and they fold after the flop. And they call you 10 times when you are bluffing and you give up. Now you have gained 2 * (4.5+6) + 12 * (4.5) - 13 * 3 - 10 * (3+4.5) = -39 bb.
This is a pretty simple, but I think very reasonable example. What this tells is that there might be easily 2 buyin differences in outcome only in cbets depending on your run. You might not realise that you are running good when people fold your cbets when you have air. Sometimes they never seem to fold and raise pretty often. Then you might level yourself to think that they are playing back at you and lose more.
The second calculation was a bit off and you actually gain 19.5, but anyways, the difference is still 1.5 buyins.
Last edited by angel19girlsingle : 01-14-2010 at 06:47 AM.