100nl 3betpot flopspot

[jjooeeyy]

Villain is 32/24 over 300 hands. Has called 8/8 3bets. Folds 48% to cbet and raises cbet 20% over 20 samples.

$0.50/$1 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($48.90)
UTG+1 ($103.50)
CO ($94.85)
BTN ($100)
Hero (SB) ($100.50)
BB ($153.75)

Pre-Flop: ($1.50, 6 players) Hero is SB Q A
2 folds, CO raises to $3, 1 fold, Hero raises to $10, 1 fold, CO calls $7

Flop: 6 2 5 ($21, 2 players)
Hero bets $10, CO raises to $26.35, Hero goes all-in $90.50

Given that he is getting to the flop with a redic wide range, and seems like a dude that issn't just c/f when he misses. Can I jam here? If jaming I think this is a pretty decent hand to do it with. What do u think?

[MrBoefie]

Im not a math guy, but I would say you're about a 30% dog vs his calling range on flop. Im curious how much FE you need for this play to be +EV. Maybe 1 of the math geniouses can do a quick calculation?

[TheStudent]

If you are 30% vs callingrange

FE (57) + (1-FE) ( (0,3 x 115) + (0.7 x 75) ) = 0

Too lazy to calculate what FE is, but pretty sure this is how you calculate it.

Edit, vs overpairs you have 25%, if you include ak even 22%, and if you also include sets you are fucked. 30% is a bit optimistic imo lol.

[Probability]

I think this is fine. The guy is super wide and is probably folding enough. I'm off to bed so I won't attempt the math.

[MC TRON]

Hey man, according to my maths (which could be wrong),
if you have 26% EQ, then if V folds 31 % of the time, you break even.
And... if you have 21 % EQ, then V needs to fold 38 % of the time.
aannddd, if you have

the first one is vs AcAd,AcAh,AdAh,KK,AcKc,AdKd,AhKh,AcQc,AhQh,AcKd,AcKh,AdKc,AdKh,AhKc,AhKd,AcQh,Ac Qs,AdQc,AdQh,AdQs,AhQc,AhQs

the second one is vs AcAd,AcAh,AdAh,KK,6c6d,6c6s,6d6s,5c5h,5c5s,5h5s,2c2h,2d2h,2d2s,AcKc,AdKd,AhKh,Ac Qc,AhQh,AcKd,AcKh,AdKc,AdKh,AhKc,AhKd,AcQh,AcQs,AdQc,AdQh,AdQs,AhQc,AhQs


surprisingl (to me anyway) if you add QQ JJ TT, then it doesnt change your EQ by more than 1% or so.

[guitarizt]

I'm using this: http://www.dailyvariance.com/fold-equity-calculator/

I gave you 25% equity and it says villain needs to fold 38% of the time for it to be b/e. I don't trust myself to put the numbers in right and I didn't double check it since it's close to what mc tron got.

I'd let this go on the flop to his raise I think unless I saw him dicking around on low boards before. It concerns me that he folds to c-bets a lot and I'm not sure if his flop raise stat includes this hand or not but it's not totally insane. It kind of sucks if he's raising hands like 99 to get them in. I guess what I'm saying is I'd need a read that he doesn't do this with made hands and draws for me to want to jam over. I think you're going to have very little fold equity against a person like this and often they don't raise hands like KJ on the flop.

[grogheadflow]

Without looking at maths I like this

[guitarizt]

I was getting too caught up in his fold to c-bet stat but 8/8 3-bets called is insane and his other stats show him to be somewhat spazzy so I think he definitely folds enough to a jam. It would still be nice to see the other 7 3-bet hands he played to know for sure what I'd do here though.

[DRUK88]

Eughhh tough spot, dunno if I like the shove though. It's probably a play you gotta make your own call based on timing, but we are toward the bottom of our betting range here.

I don't think this guy is raise/folding that much tbh, and what worries me is I think he's probably the type to just GII with combodraws etc and maybe even a hand like 77.

I guess I can't fault a shove though, he's probs getting it in with flushdraws too that we're ahead of - just feels weird b/shoving essentially as a bluff, but we probably have the best hand.