100NL - 3bp 3way, vbet river?

[DRUK88]

UTG is 68/41, 15% 3b, 40% fold to 3b, 88% cb, 38% fold to cb.

He is obv a fish but unpredictable. His first hand at the table he limped CO, BTN iso, SB 3b and he flatted K7s, he then called two streets (3way on flop, HU on turn) on Q74ss, 5off. Have also seen him make weird spews.

MP is 28/20, 9.8% 3b (0 from MP over 10 hands), 50% fold to 3b, 78% cb 50% fold to cb.

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
SB ($116)
BB ($98)
UTG ($300)
UTG+1 ($100)
Hero ($100)
BTN ($100)

Dealt to Hero A K

UTG raises to $4, UTG+1 calls $4, Hero raises to $11, fold, fold, fold, UTG calls $7, UTG+1 calls $7

FLOP ($34.50) 3 7 Q

UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero checks

TURN ($34.50) 3 7 Q A

UTG bets $17.25, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls $17.25

RIVER ($69) 3 7 Q A J

UTG checks, Hero ??

Can we vbet the river here? I would say it's reasonable to bet 1/2 pot and possible get looked up by 2nd pair or weaker Ax. However, I am unsure if he will spaz here with a missed draw etc. I'm not sure if he can vbet thin at all and would rather c/c 2pair?

However I do feel that with it being so broadway-heavy, it's like he has showdown value hands that he *probably* doesn't turn into bluffs?

So, do we vbet (and if so do we fold vs a shove) or do we just checkback hoping to win most of the time, hoping to gain information which we can use in the future.

[polak004]

I would assume he's betting larger on the turn with any two pair hands he has to protect against the flush draw so I'd only be worried about maybe Jx two pairs but he bets those a decent amount on the river anyways and has way more Ax one pairs.

I'd bet somewhere around $45 and fold if he shoves (shitty when he does but he won't bluff and he's not gonna have a worse hand often enough)

[Kitsune101]

Vs a regular I would check behind here because it is really unlikely for you to have a big hand your self except maybe AJ or QJ which villain might not be in your perceive range.

However, in this case, ill vbet vs the weak player and fold to a shove.

[JamesMa]

hmm I feel fairly confident in a bet $48ish I think

[grogheadflow]

Ya VS a reg it's a check as our range is just too strong, but VS this dude let's go $44. I don't think I've had a fish check shove a missed draw on the river on me in 4 years, and I've looked up a few!

[DRUK88]

Originally Posted by grogheadflow

Ya VS a reg it's a check as our range is just too strong, but VS this dude let's go $44. I don't think I've had a fish check shove a missed draw on the river on me in 4 years, and I've looked up a few!

I agree with that, however I am worried by the fact fish can't vbet thin.

For example, I'm not sure if V can vbet hands like A3, QJ, other weaker 2pair, which may make this decision closer?

I dunno, maybe he does vbet those hands?