100nl Did I butcher this?

[Morrizio]

Sorry if this seems really standard ive been on a big down swing recently and I feel like ive lost a bit of confidence in my ability to make the right play....

SB is a big fish 39/19 he calls alot pre flop and post flop. BB is a weaker reg .

I'm not sure what BB is leading on the flop HP, I thought all his leading range would bet much bigger. i doubt he ever leads a straight and if he has a set he would lead closer to pot i presume. I want to keep the fish in the pot with hands he'l overplay should i hit flush so I flat. Is this optimal or does anyone think raising is better?

On the turn I bet to build my implied odds v weaker flushes but again im wondering whether this is really any good. SB is gonna have a load of pair + SD/FD and i doubt he folds any of those here so I have no fold equity. Im planning on bluffing broadway rivers to get him to fold hands like 85/87/86 etc although there is a chance he clicks call anyway.

On the river I felt it was close between value betting and checking back. All thoughts welcome, cheers!


iPoker - £1 NL - Holdem - 3 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

SB: £122.05
BB: £135.01
Hero (BTN): £113.90

SB posts SB £0.50, BB posts BB £1.00

Pre Flop: (£1.50) Hero has 2 A

Hero raises to £2.00, SB calls £1.50, BB calls £1.00

Flop: (£6.00, 3 players) 7 5 6
SB checks, BB bets £3.00, Hero calls £3.00, SB calls £3.00

Turn: (£15.00, 3 players) T
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets £10.00, SB calls £10.00, fold

River: (£35.00, 2 players) A
SB checks, Hero

[klink10k]

bet

[habanero]

23£/fold
raise flop sometimes vs weak 3bb lead/fact that you are deeper than 100bb

[polak004]

Originally Posted by klink-

bet

Wp...

Flop I like the flat since there's still one more player behind and they can potentially have something strong here, although kinda unlikely since they would probably lead a decent amount of the time. Point is, you have position so calling here makes sense.

Turn, I would be checking back cause like you said you don't really have fold equity especially vs two people (one being a station most likely) so I would prefer to just realize my equity at this point.

River, I think it's definitely going to be a valuebet since both players would likely lead their two pair+ hands and SB is a fish that will probably click call with 4th pair.

[Morrizio]

Yeah... I think river is a value bet. Which makes turn bet bad obv. He had T5ss, not sure if he calls with worse but i think hes a fish so....

[ukpokerman1]

I like flop call because there are lots of value hands like 2pr+ or even a spewy 1 pr+straight draw that he could decide to get and our equity as great as we would like. Better to call, keep fish in and use our position.

I dont like turn bluff unless you plan to make the one pr + draw hands fold with a river bluff on the higher river cards that don't complete the draws / 2 pairs, i.e. any T+ river, and maybe a 2. You say he has lots of 1pr+draw type hands, and I agree, and you rightly say you probably have no fold equity, but it's 2-street fold-equity you should be considering.

In this particular spot I think a turn check-back is best, as we may get blown off our hand, its 3-way so more likely to see a monster and fish may well call turn and river with just one pair.

In general there are many spots that could arise on the turn where the turn bluff alone is not +EV, but when factored in with a river bluff, the 2-street play becomes +EV.

Definately value bet river. Bet something that may get looked up by a 1 pair hand, so around half pot, or even slightly under. He mostly folds but those times you make as much as if you had checked back anyway. You get far more calls by 1pr type hands than you get CR'd imo. It's also very good for our balance. The turn bet was only good if we bluff river on the high cards, so we have to bet for value also. That way we merge our river betting range to include thinner hands like this aswell as bluffs and nuts. Makes you very difficult to play against!

(PS- I offer coaching... www.CordyPokerCoaching@blogspot.com)

[Morrizio]

Do we really need to consider balancing against someone this bad though? If I expect him to fold his one pair hands on broadway rivers should I not check this hand back since I think everything we beat will fold anyway?

Appreciate the response

[ukpokerman1]

Sure its unlikely a 39/19 is paying attention to metagame but theres 4 others at the table who possibly are. If only one of them takes notice, and you do this say 2 or 3 times a day, then next month you've got a lot more fold equity on the river should you choose to blufff in a similar spot.

If I spotted that you checked back in this spot I would definately make a note which would help me call you down in the future if you were bluffing in a similar spot. If you try and loosen up and strart bluffing more you'll not be as succesful as you could be because regs have noticed that your range is very polarized, vecause you dont value bet the middle of your range like here.

Without metagame considerations on this river its still a mandatory bet though. He's 39-19 so his main weakness is playing too many hands and passively, so hes quite likely to call here I think if you bet around half pot. Even if he only calls 25% of the time with those hands its worth betting. You've got allow for some randomness in his decisions. Even though you feel its correct for him to fold most of his range, even decent regs wont make the correct play 100% of the time.

My gut feel from the logic in your posts is that you need to make 2 adjustments in these type of river spots; value bet more thinly, like with this hand, and bluff river more often having started a bluffing sequence earlier in the hand.

[DRUK88]

Pre is obv fine, flop is fine, turn is bad because you don't really rep anything etc, just checkback. River definitely a vbet, he can def call you light too with this being an "obv" bluff card, you turning stuff into a bluff expecting him to fold 78 etc.