100NL Disguised flush, but facing action multiway

[QHealthy]

MP, is a 30/25 15% 3B, Calling station aggro reg, I saw him call call call with 33 on 99576 board in a 3bet pot 250bbdeep, aswell as other spots, where he got raised multiway, he had AA and he didnt fold.

both hands he ended up being right. I dont know if he had killer reads but anyways, he seems like a pretty bad reg, and I did get on all of his tables after these hands.

SB, is a winning REG, I dont have much reads on him, except that in some pots i felt outplayed.

I 3Bet MP IP, I dont plan to bluff him too much, but I want to build the pot to make him do huge mistakes in a huge pots, hes the kind to try to represent what ive got, once he check/raised all in with AK high when I turned trips, in a 250bb deep pot.

Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

MP: $460.94
Hero (CO): $252.25
BTN: $376.85
SB: $261.24
BB: $160.04
UTG: $249.40

Pre-Flop: 8 7 dealt to Hero (CO)
UTG folds, MP raises to $2.20, Hero raises to $8.20, BTN folds, SB calls $7.50, MP calls $6

Flop: ($26.20) 4 Q J (3 Players)
SB checks, MP checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($26.20) 2 (3 Players)
SB bets $18, MP calls $18, Hero calls $18

River: ($80.20) 8 (3 Players)
SB bets $52, MP calls $52, Hero ...

When MP call my 3Bet oop, I put him on his exact same range he openned from MP, wich probably is something like 45s+ 64s+ all broadways, 22-JJ, A2s+

SB could have a wide range, since he probably knows the MP is likely to make huge mistakes postflop, so probably any pairs, maybe some broadways KQ, AQ, AJ, maybe wider, who knows?

I check back the flop I dont expect to get many fold on that flop, and if I turn or river a flush it will be disguised and maybe one of those guys would try to represent it, or value bet more thinly.

Now the SB leads on the turn. I definitly thinks hes good enough to lead bluff, multiway, or he could have a bigger flush or value betting a Q or a set, then MP calls.. I decide just to call.. raising seems pretty thin, if I raise and some of them calls I think I will be beat most of the time. and If I just call the SB might continue bluffing, or MP might decide that hes more likely to have the flush, since I did not raise.

River, SB leads again, and MP calls again.. im not folding thats for sure, MP is a callign station he could just have a bare Qx hand here or 2 pairs. I feel that raising the river would be too thin.

Your thoughts?

[Kitsune101]

Love the flop check. Not too sure about 3-betting preflop vs some aggro reg that might 4-bet light and having multiple deep stack behind that might cold 4-bet squeeze.

I think you dont need to worry about MP 100%, you always got MP beat.

To figure out whether you should shove or call, I would say you need to figure out SB value betting range and figure out his calling range. And if SB folds, what is MP calling with?

I would be tempted to shove because your hand is so disguised. But at the same time if I was SB/MP, I would think you are insane to be bluffing 3-ways deep thus you must have it. haha.

But given your reads, I dont think you can get SB to call with worst, but MP seems to like to hero call and probably wont put you on a flush.

Btw i think SB bet sizing is alittle small. Especially since MP is in the pot I would think SB would bet bigger if he have the nuts.

I can really see this going either way.

[Kitsune101]

Lets assign some ranges:

SB: To value bet river I think SB can have QQ, JJ, 44, 22, AKcc, KQcc and AQcc
MP: For MP to call I think he can have 44, 22, QJo, QJs, T9s (except T9cc because i think he shoves)

equity
Hand 0: 22.857% (SB)
Hand 1: 00.000% (MP)
Hand 2: 77.143% (You)

The pot is $184.2. If you just call.

EV = .77*184.2 -.23*52 = $129.87

If you shove. Assuming SB only calls you with a flush but when SB folds MP calls 100% (thats the only merit to shoving IMO, to get MP to hero call)

SB:
12 combos of set
3 combos of flush
Calls 20% of the time.

You have $226.05 behind. The pot size is $184.2. So you are shoving $226.05 into $184.2

EV = .8*(226.05+184.2) - .2*226.05 = $282.99

Seems like shoving is better with the assumptions I made. (Someone please double check the maths :P)

[QHealthy]

I know the result so its hard for me to think they would call with worst.

But since they could have any combos of set, and one of them could have a straight and my Flush is sort of disguised. Raising is probably best..

Or maybe something like a minraise? minraise/fold?