100NL - Folding the turn

[DRUK88]

V is 25/21 over 2.2k hands.

3b 8.2%, fold to 3b 59% (4b 13% over 61 sample), 68% cb, 40% fold to cb

cbet by street: 68%, 54%, 75%

3b from sb 8%

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
SB ($124)
BB ($130)
Hero ($119)
CO ($101)
BTN ($113)

Dealt to Hero T T

Hero raises to $3, fold, fold, SB raises to $10, fold, Hero calls $7

FLOP ($21) 7 8 7

SB bets $13, Hero calls $13

TURN ($47) 7 8 7 2

SB bets $25, Hero ??

Lately, I have found that call flop and turn but folding river to be a good strategy at this limit and especially at 50NL. The reason being that people in general cannot vbet thin and 3barrel bluff with anywhere close to good frequencies. This makes the third barrel very polarised, and most likely the nuts.

However, I am aware that calling two and folding the third vs competent players who barrel is a recipe for disaster, and also vs incompetent regfish in the wrong spots. I have thus been thinking about spots where I should actually be folding the turn because the situation is similar to that on the river in the more general spots.

So, here I am advocating a fold.

The reason for this is that I think he's 3b'ing me from MP (5handed) so probably has a tighter range than his 8% 3b from SB may suggest. Not only that, but the turn card is ridiculously bad for barreling, and my hand is presumably face up, What makes this less of a fold is the fact that he is pretty aggro and there is a flush draw possible, however I feel vs this villain if I call turn I gotta call river, and I don't think I can take that much heat with this hand vs his perceived range here?

Thoughts?

[hopjesvlaa22]

I think its fine to fold. If you make a note out of it and try to find out how he plays in 3b pots.
On the other hand you could call him down and make a different note...

Just try finding out how he plays in 3b pots.

[MrBoefie]

I would not fold TT here on the turn unless I have a specific read to do so. Maybe I'll fold to some river cards, but I think I would call most.

If I read your post correctly, you've found a way to comfortably play in 3bet pots, allthough you're worried that you might be exploitable because you're folding to a 3rd barrel a lot.

Instead of thinking about folding your value hands on the turn, I would think more in terms of what players could be picking up on my tendencies, or what players might be likely to vbet thinly on river or 3barrel bluf a lot and then adjust by calling more rivers.

[FabledHero]

I think it really depends on how villain perceives you. The more you fold to 3 bets pre and to cbets, the more comfortably you can fold the turn. The more he thinks you may be floating flop the more you want to call down. I think without any reads on your opponent folding turn is fine at this limit and maybe even the best play. In the games I play I'd be calling down FTR, but I think you might be right in folding turn there. I guess I'd say try to pay attention how most regulars play, see how many they tend to barrel in these spots, you could even filter for times you call 3 bet in these positions and look through your HEM to see how often they bluff X amount of streets.