100nl, full river vs fish

[Prasty]

[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #11775602

BTN: $82.34 (82.3 bb)
SB: $42.57 (42.6 bb)
BB: $72 (72 bb)
Hero (UTG): $341.88 (341.9 bb)
MP: $110.28 (110.3 bb)
CO: $228.88 (228.9 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A 9
Hero raises to $3, MP calls $3, 4 folds

Flop: ($7.50) 6 9 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $5, MP calls $5

Turn: ($17.50) 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $12, MP calls $12

River: ($41.50) 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $25, MP raises to $90.28 and is all-in, Hero?

oppo is 33/17 on 735 hands, 3b pre only 2%, afq flop/turn/river 20/25/33, and postflop fold to cbet flop turn river 46/50/17 w a wtsd=25%.
what do you think about river? i'm pretty sure he shove any 9x, any 6x of course, and hands like TT/JJ..


Board: 9d6s4h6h6d
Equity Vincita Pareggio
MP2 23.81% 14.29% 9.52% { Ah9h }
MP3 76.19% 66.67% 9.52% { JJ-TT, 44, J9s, T9s, 86s, 76s }

i'm not sure about other pp like 55, maybe he think "ok i have full house, all in!!".

Board: 9d6s4h6h6d
Equity Vincita Pareggio
MP2 33.33% 25.00% 8.33% { Ah9h }
MP3 66.67% 58.33% 8.33% { JJ-TT, 88, J9s, T9s, 86s, 76s }

i add only 88 and the call is slightly +ev..

[Kitsune101]

I dont know whether he wld shove a 9 here?

I wld also bet river larger. And would probably fold here. And im quite sure villain only calls with 88 below.

[Kitsune101]

Villain is also going to show up with QQ+ some % of the time too. Given his 3-bet is only 2%

[hopjesvlaa22]

I would fold because of his low 3b%. He could easyly have qq/kk/aa here.

[DRUK88]

I would call because I feel part of the reason he flats hands like TT is so he can c/r flop here.

[FabledHero]

"oppo is 33/17 on 735 hands, 3b pre only 2%" This bit of info. I think makes it an easy fold. With a 3bet % that low it's likely he'll flat TT-QQ, maybe even KK or AA occasionally, and I don't think he's ever shoving with 9x. It seems like way too much of a stretch imo to put him on floating twice now shoving a board where your range is uncapped, you're repping a very strong value range of overpairs or sets. Given I think his value range can be TT-AA here some portions of the time I like a fold. Also his aggression numbers are low.

If you do think he shoves 9x, it becomes close but I think it's more likely he calls because your range can have any boat higher he has to be concerned at least a bit his boat is no good. Also given his 3 bet is 2 and aggression numbers or low he seems more of the passive type not to vbet shove thin or bluff crazy.

[FabledHero]

Originally Posted by DRUK88

I would call because I feel part of the reason he flats hands like TT is so he can c/r flop here.

Guys who 3 bet a really low % generally do so because they're scared of playing a big pot with a non nut type hand. So I disagree about him calling b/c he plans on c/r TT. It seems more likely that he's a weaker player who just wants to keep the pot smaller without a plan like that.