100nl good river valueshove?

[AKmaert]

Cant remember villains exact stats but hes a bit of a spoon bless him. He'd been at the table for about 3 rounds and had been splashing around a fair bit. He got his stack by calling pot size bets on flop and turn for >half his stack with a flush draw and getting there. He doesnt seem to bet a whole lot but doesnt look like he wants to fold many pairs.

Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

SB: $98.50
BB: $95.50
UTG: $163.70
MP: $90.60
CO: $110
Hero (BTN): $100.90

Pre-Flop: Q Q dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG calls $1, MP calls $1, CO calls $1, Hero raises to $5, 2 folds, UTG calls $4, 2 folds

Flop: ($13.50) 9 T 3 (2 Players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $9, UTG calls $9

Turn: ($31.50) 9 (2 Players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $24, UTG calls $24

River: ($79.50) J (2 Players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $62.90 and is All-In

I think a lot of his range is comprised of T's/random other pairs/9's and draws such as QJ/KJ that have rivered TP. Is shoving gonna be +EV here?

[Fuzzy Logic]

Fine if he stacks off with any J i suppose. That turn has really helped you as now all his 2 pair hands like JT are beaten, if he has a a 9 then bleh.

BTW, the flush got there, but I would expect him to bet that a large % of the time.

Edit: Actually I think its too thin as the J completed all FD and OESD's so check back.

[AKmaert]

I think Backdoor flush is pretty rare tbh.

J completes 78, but pairs QJ/J8, so looking at the oesd part of his range he now either has a straight but more likely made a pair he may stack off with.

Thoughts?

[Fuzzy Logic]

Yeah, I suppose. We really need to know how often he stacks off with QJ/JT to be sure but I cant see it being hugely + or - EV overall.

I agree about BDFD but these fckers always seem to turn up with one!

[AKmaert]

lolz, i hear u on that 1.

He had KQ so we'll never know quite how light he'd stack off i guess, i'm thinkin pretty light given how he played flop/turn.

Thx for the checkup

[Fuzzy Logic]

Buddy list that guy, calling a turn bet on a paired board with gutshot and 2 overs. LOL

[btimm]

I think it is fine if your read is that he will stack off light. Only thing I would comment on is that I think your preflop raise is a little too small with 3 limpers, bump that up a bit imo.