100NL - Limped Pot 3way, Top2 facing aggression

[DRUK88]

UTG is 40/25 over 200 hands, 6% limp.
MP is 23/16 over 1.5k hands (3.9% 3b, 67% fold to 3b, 45% cb, 70% fold to cb).

UTG is a spewy fish. In general don't have a bunch of info on MP but he's not good and does spewy stuff in bad spots.

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
Hero ($104)
BB ($157)
UTG ($220)
UTG+1 ($100)
CO ($229)
BTN ($121)

Dealt to Hero 7 J

UTG calls $1, UTG+1 calls $1, fold, fold, Hero calls $0.50, BB checks

FLOP ($4) J 5 7

Hero bets $3, BB folds, UTG calls $3, UTG+1 raises to $16, Hero ??

Seems like a very strong line from a regfish, but we have top2 so are only really worried about 555.

Is it possible he's raising light for value to iso the fish?

If he isn't wide for value, then how do we play back at this? I would assume shoving is bad, calling is weird when OOP knowing the fish might call and our hand is semi-vulnerable. Maybe clicking it back is best, allowing him to shove any possible bluffs/semibluffs but also let him shove (for protection etc) and hands he is maybe raising light to isolate vs the fish or raising to protect etc?

Or is this just a set everytime and we should just fold?

[hopjesvlaa22]

I would shove flop expecting MP calling with jx or calling with a strong draw like 68hh or something. Its fine if he folds imo. You dont want to call and give utg nice odds and play a weird spot on the turn oop.

His line doesnt make any sense..you could have a lot of draws in your range and Mp might also.
He could raise for value with jx or raise with a strong draw to GII vs the fish, probably just jx.

[DRUK88]

Originally Posted by hopjesvlaa22

I would shove flop expecting MP calling with jx or calling with a strong draw like 68hh or something. Its fine if he folds imo. You dont want to call and give utg nice odds and play a weird spot on the turn oop.

His line doesnt make any sense..you could have a lot of draws in your range and Mp might also.
He could raise for value with jx or raise with a strong draw to GII vs the fish, probably just jx.

Well shouldn't we click it back then? He will shove all the hands that call a shove and maybe some more than won't that we beat or are ahead of?

[hopjesvlaa22]

Originally Posted by DRUK88

Well shouldn't we click it back then? He will shove all the hands that call a shove and maybe some more than won't that we beat or are ahead of?

Well if you shove it looks a little weaker then when you 3b small. When you 3b small he might fold jx imo. And when you shove he might think you want him to fold so I see more calls with jx that way.

[DRUK88]

Hand continued...

I decide to click it back. My reasoning is as I put earlier - we allow the villain to protection shove Jx (or call) and maybe shove any bluffs/semibluffs.

However, after I effectively minraise, BTN calls (WTF?) and then MP shoves!

Thoughts?

[guitarizt]

I'd just jam it for value before scare cards come. As played not worried all about utg but mp jamming makes me puke. I'd fold it.

Simulated 100000 Holdem Hands (Monte Carlo)
Simulation by Slice - The ev++ Equity Calculator
Board :: Jh7c5h

 Player   Equity   Win Hi   Tie Hi                Range                   
    
   1       60.3     60.3     0.0          Ah7h,8h7h,7h6h,55,JJ,77     
   2       16.8     16.8     0.1      55,77,75s,JJ+,AJ,KhQh,AhQh,Ah7h 
   3       22.9     22.9     0.1                    Jd7d

Actually after reading your note I don't fold it. It sounds like maybe he would do the same thing with something like Th9h.

[Donktard]

I dont see him having JJ in his range imo he didnt iso the fish and we have a J so it is very unlikely.

You called pre, hit the perfect flop and you have 100bbs, etc...

[guitarizt]

hmm weird I thought utg minraised. oops. I'd call the flop raise to keep the fish in and hope that tag bombs the turn with Jx. I don't like flop raise because it's hard to get value from worse. Also 77 isn't likely but if he can have 55 he can have the one combo of 77 as well if that's not in his iso range.