100NL Zoom: lowest boat against river overshove

[Timor]

Villain 22/17 over 362 hands, seems solid. Calls opens from SB only 3%, 3bets vs EP 0% and 10% from SB and overall, if those stats mean anything over a small sample size.

Against a normal-sized bet on the river, I'm of course never folding. Question is whether there would still be value in a shove, probably there is?

Now, this guy overshoves. To me this screams like he has the nuts (KK,KJ,JJ, a lost 66 maybe) and he's hoping I will call with whatever (Jx, lower boat). Apart from QTs (which I don't see him calling pre and playing like this) there are no busted draws in his range, and if he has JTs-QJs he's definitely not overshoving.

He MIGHT play AJ this way, but even then it's pretty borderline play from him and only AJs is in his range pre probably.

So, is a fold too sick here?


Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BTN: $49 (49 bb)
SB: $156.52 (156.5 bb)
BB: $142.33 (142.3 bb)
Hero (UTG): $136.50 (136.5 bb)
MP: $60.08 (60.1 bb)
CO: $191.23 (191.2 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 3 3
Hero raises to $3, 3 folds, SB calls $2.50, BB folds

Flop: ($7) J 3 K (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $5, SB calls $5

Turn: ($17) J (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $12.50, SB raises to $27, Hero calls $14.50

River: ($71) 6 (2 players)
SB bets $121.52, ??

[polak004]

I guess if he does it with every AJ combo, it's still probably a really nasty fold cause he has 5 combos that he plays like this that you lose to and only 2 combos you beat. If he ever bluffs like this with something random, it can probably go either way. I just don't see many overbets at 100NL where people are bluffing a whole lot so I would discount that quite a bit.