Re: 200nl, 2nd pair river 3suited board vs random
Shove river as a bluff to get him to fold AA,KK, something like 70% of the time and check-fold 30% of the time.
AA-KK is the main part of his range that beats us as he would likely 3bet flop with straight or set. If he did just call with set he may well fold it on river (in fact he probaly does something like 70% of time). Yes he sometimes has a flush but given that he 3bets flop with these sometimes then on the river he probably folds better like AA/KK as often as he calls with better (flushes), and given that these percentages roughly match then neither play is strictly better in EV terms so I would prefer a river bet as it's good for our perceived range (ie - it's confusing as hell for him). Because its so close though we dont want to making either play 100% of the time though so try and balance the percentages.