200nl - Terrible Fold?

[PhilTRich]

Full Tilt Poker $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players


SB: $38.00
BB: $280.00
UTG: $89.90
MP: $237.70
CO: $436.50
Hero (BTN): $197.00

Pre Flop: Hero is BTN with A A
1 fold, MP raises to $7, 1 fold, Hero raises to $22, 2 folds, MP calls $15

Flop: ($47.00) J 6 7 (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $32, MP calls $32

Turn: ($111.00) K (2 players)
MP bets $52, Hero calls $52

River: ($215.00) 2 (2 players)
MP bets $131.70 all in, Hero folds


MP is unknown but seems LAGish. He's opening a lot and pounding on the fish with cbets and double barrels in good spots and generally seems competent. I'm playing pretty tight at around 18/14 with a 3bet of 3. I haven't seen MP react to a 3bet as of yet.

I can safely assume that his 3bet calling range OOP includes all TT+, AJs+, etc. I'm also confident, although not certain, that he calls with SCs and other randomizers.

The only things I really think I beat are things like 8c9c. I also think my turn call is quite bad if I'm not also calling rivers on blanks.

Note: Left alone I'd have thought this to be a reasonable fold due to the weight of stronger hands (67, JJ, KK, sets) and the unlikeliness (or perhaps the rarity at these stakes) of hands I beat being so agressive into my very thin 3bet %. I just seriously can't imagine what he does this with and I was so convinced I was being value towned. Am I wrong?

[Anthony18]

His line looks so strong but I think folding here will make you be pretty exploitable.
I mean if you are not stacking off w/ AA in a 3bet pot on a decent board then what are you stacking off w/ here? Sets, two pairs etc are pretty hard to make in holdem.
I would call here but it may be just the calling station part of me that makes me do that.

[jgunnip]

Yeah not folding. I would have just shipped the turn to his gay bet.

[Fuzzy Logic]

Originally Posted by jgunnip

Yeah not folding. I would have just shipped the turn to his gay bet.

^^^This

[lostinthesaus]

Def shipping turn. But I don't know, his line on river looks ULTRA strong. He's donking into you on the turn when you 3 bet him preflop, then committing his whole stack on river? I hate being results oriented here. I would have definitely shipped it in on river, but I would have reviewed it later and thought a fold might have been possible. Real easy to just say "ship it in" but I don't think you are ever really good here.

[jgunnip]

Originally Posted by lostinthesaus

Def shipping turn. But I don't know, his line on river looks ULTRA strong. He's donking into you on the turn when you 3 bet him preflop, then committing his whole stack on river? I hate being results oriented here. I would have definitely shipped it in on river, but I would have reviewed it later and thought a fold might have been possible. Real easy to just say "ship it in" but I don't think you are ever really good here.

I think the guy is shoving his entire range on the river. So if shoving the turn is best then I think calling the river is mandatory.

[Macio]

i like calling turn if you are calling his any river bets including shoves. I think your line looks like QQ JJ TT that want to see cheap river and he will shove river with AK for that reason. He will shove river with air as well as AA would surely reraised/shoved turn.

OK .. he might do it with set and hoping that you will reraise with AK but after you called turn bet to get the max he have to shove.

I am never folding this river and i think i would prefer to just call turn to help him stack off on the river with bluffs or AK.

I think with air people will fold to your turn shove but when you ONLY call they can try to put you off your hand.

[clayton]

jam turn, if he has better wooyay, but the river gets a lot sicker because people dont bluff so much on the river compared to betcalling stupid stuff on the turn