200nl: TPGK facing river shove

[mrt801]

Hey guys,

Hand History Posting and Rakeback

Villain in this hand is a real donkey playing 43/11/1.2 over ~600 hands.
He raised in MP, had been 3betting him and other players a lot so decided to flat preflop and stack him with any top pair.

Flop he checks behind. (His cbet% is 61)
Don't really know what that means, I'd figure he would cbet an ace.

Turn I lead for value and get a call. By now I think he has like a pp or and ace with no kicker. Bet the river to get value from these hands, but then he shoves on me.. What do I do?

Maartennn

[xgamer]

I think it's quite an easy fold against such a passive player. He is most likely slowplaying a set and filled up on the river or played some sort of random 4. The worst hands I expect to see are A6 and AT. You're pretty much never good in that spot, the pot is very small and you have no reason to put in 100 more bucks.

[Probability]

Fold preflop, your oop vs a player that has a tight range in early position.

Fold river.

[ninjapoker]

This type of player ussually calls too much and never folds any piece of the board. That said, I wouldnt fold AQo preflop against him.

I would lead this flop cause I think his cbet % is very low, so I'd rather bet and make sure that he will continue with any piece of the board and he can always bluff right...

As played, it's a hard spot. He could be bluffing a missed str8 or flush draw, but I think most people would have bet it on the flop. I dont think he is doing this move with a worse AX (only AJ if he ever does this imo)... Resuming, i dont think he is bluffing or raising worse hands enought on the river to justify this call. I would fold.

[platty]

folding preflop AQ against a fish is waaaay to nitty, and i can't see what you want to get a call from on the river by betting (not results oriented) - there are no draws, nothing, imho check/call, fold to an overbet/shove. turn card doesn't make much sense for him to call, unless he is slowplaying smth big (obviously, he cbets any ace), or has a pocket pair like 99 or JJ and calls thinking you may be taking a stab, because it is never AT, KT, JT, QT, T9, whatever, but on the river when you fire again for 3/4 pot, it is safe to say he is strong. So on the turn it is WA/WB and we can only show weakness and probably extract a little from 88-JJ. As played it is a clear fold.

[Probability]

The guy has an 11pfr and opened for mp and you guys call with AQ oop? I really dont think a fold is nitty here.