AK in a 4bet pot (EV calc)

[semu]

PokerStars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

So villain was 26/16/6.5 and 3bet of 5.9 over 92 hands. I decided to 4bet because I'm OOP and I think his 3 betting range is wide on the BTN.


MP: $105.95
CO: $125.50
BTN: $100
Hero (SB): $99.90
BB: $100
UTG: $122.50

Pre-Flop: K A dealt to Hero (SB)
2 folds, CO raises to $4, BTN raises to $13, Hero raises to $30, 2 folds, BTN calls $17

Flop: ($65) 8 7 A (2 Players)
Hero bets $69.90 and is All-In, BTN folds

Results: $65 Pot

My equity:

Hand 0: 63.615% 51.63% 11.98% 12268 2847.00 { AhKs }
Hand 1: 36.385% 24.40% 11.98% 5798 2847.00 { JJ+, AQs+, AKo }

Now to the EV calc:

JJ-AA - 19 combos; 7 hands call me(Q-Kdx + AA).

Ak; AKs

2 + 11 combos all call me.

AQs 2 combos all fold.

EV:

This is my equity against him when he calls w Q-Kdx and AA.

7 * -73.753% * 203 = -1048.03013

7 * 26.247% * 203 = 372.96987

This is the 12 hands he folds.

12 * 65 = 780

EV: 19/34 * 104.93974 = 58.642

This is my equity against AKo and Aks.

13 * -56.061% * 203 = -1479.44979

13 * 43.939 * 203 = 1159.55021


EV: 13/34 * -319.89958 = -122.314


AQs:

2 * 65 = 130

EV: 2/34 * 130 = 7.647


Total EV for AI: -56.025


I wanna know if my calc is right.

[AKmaert]

Im not really sure what you've done above, I've never used that method. Il try and do the Ev calc below using the assumptions you have (correct me if i go wrong anywhere):

Using pokerstove he gets to the flop with { JJ+, AQs+, AKo } which is 3.3% of hands according to pokerstove.

i think Im right in assuming you say he calls with AA, all AKo and KKd and QQd which is 2% of all hands.

Therefore if we shove he folds 1.3/3.3*100=39.3% of the time (call it 40% because thats what i used in the calcs below). So 40% of the time we immediately profit $65.

The rest of the time, 2/3.3=60% of the time he calls:

equity win
Hand 0: 46.477% { AhKs }
Hand 1: 53.523% { AA, KcKd, KdKh, QcQd, QdQh, QdQs, AKs, AKo }

and he have ~46% equity in a total pot of $205.

0.46*$205=$94.3 So after shoving $70 he make an initial $24.3 when we get all in, which is 60% of the time.


Total EV = 0.4*65+0.6*24.3= $40.40

So if the above is correct (ffs anyone let me know if it isnt!!!) we make 40bucks by shoving if our assumptions are correct. I would suggest he gets to the flop a bit wider than we have assumed (whether that is correct play or not) due to our small 4bet and that would make our shove even better.

[RiverRock55]

well done AKmaert,, I think you forgot to include AQ in his calling range which makes shoving even better for Hero.

Also OP depending on the villian checking this flop and giving him one street of rope to hang himself often outweighs the risk we run of having him check back and seeing a diamond/broadway card come off on the turn. Some villians will put you on KK/QQ/JJ here when you check and semibluff/bluff shove most of their range. Against these guys its good to mix it up and check once in a while, it also buys you free cards in the future against him in other 3bet/4bet pots.

[semu]

Originally Posted by AKmaert

Im not really sure what you've done above, I've never used that method. Il try and do the Ev calc below using the assumptions you have (correct me if i go wrong anywhere):

Using pokerstove he gets to the flop with { JJ+, AQs+, AKo } which is 3.3% of hands according to pokerstove.

i think Im right in assuming you say he calls with AA, all AKo and KKd and QQd which is 2% of all hands.

Therefore if we shove he folds 1.3/3.3*100=39.3% of the time (call it 40% because thats what i used in the calcs below). So 40% of the time we immediately profit $65.

The rest of the time, 2/3.3=60% of the time he calls:

equity win
Hand 0: 46.477% { AhKs }
Hand 1: 53.523% { AA, KcKd, KdKh, QcQd, QdQh, QdQs, AKs, AKo }

and he have ~46% equity in a total pot of $205.

0.46*$205=$94.3 So after shoving $70 he make an initial $24.3 when we get all in, which is 60% of the time.


Total EV = 0.4*65+0.6*24.3= $40.40

So if the above is correct (ffs anyone let me know if it isnt!!!) we make 40bucks by shoving if our assumptions are correct. I would suggest he gets to the flop a bit wider than we have assumed (whether that is correct play or not) due to our small 4bet and that would make our shove even better.

Hmm.. Well I calced the flop EV for AI. Now you say that his total hands are 3.3% because the range (AA,KK,QQ,JJ,Ako,Aks) is that but there are cards on the table(Ad8d7d) and I have AhKs. So his range is not 3.3% of hands on the flop.

[flaviusO]

I'd make a 4bet of 32-33$ so that when we're shoving we're not overbetting the pot

[AKmaert]

Originally Posted by semu

Hmm.. Well I calced the flop EV for AI. Now you say that his total hands are 3.3% because the range (AA,KK,QQ,JJ,Ako,Aks) is that but there are cards on the table(Ad8d7d) and I have AhKs. So his range is not 3.3% of hands on the flop.

This is true although when doing the pokerstove calcs i excluded any cards in the hand combos that weren't possible because of the board (as far as I am aware!) I dont think this should change things in my calcs too much though.

I'd make a 4bet of 32-33$ so that when we're shoving we're not overbetting the pot

Heh, NOT helpful flavius