NL100: 3bet AK vs steal

[Mustika]

Hey guys, I just played this hand and would like to hear some ideas how others would play this hand and with what reasoning.

About villian:
We are playing rushpoker I have 576 hands on him. He is a 15/14 with a steal from the cutoff of 18% and button steal of 48% in my sample size. He folds to 3bets only 38% of the time and 4bets 23% of the time (sample of 13). Here is the hand and my reasoning while playing the hand:

Full Tilt, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

Hero (BB): $114.05
UTG: $196.90
UTG+1: $74.90
UTG+2: $331.75
MP1: $44
MP2: $170.60
CO: $106.10
BTN: $95.70
SB: $41.50

Pre-Flop: K A dealt to Hero (BB)
5 folds, CO raises to $3, 2 folds, Hero raises to $10, CO calls $7

Flop: ($20.50) 9 Q T (2 Players)
Hero bets $13, CO calls $13

Turn: ($46.50) 2 (2 Players)
Hero bets $28, CO calls $28

River: ($102.50) T (2 Players)
Hero checks

[/i]

Preflop:
So I 3bet preflop for value since I can shove if he 4bets and I expect him to call with hands I dominate.

Flop:
I don't like this flop at all since it hits his range really well, I assume he has a lot of boradways and maybe some smaller pairs. My range is really strong as well though and I have 2 overcards that may be good, a backdoorflushdraw and a gutshot. I also think I would never check a strong hand here and I don't think I can check call at all. So I decide to bet, but don't really expect him to fold much.

Turn:
Now I turn the NFD, again I don't think he will go anywhere since he should at least have a pair+gutter. He might even have sets, though I think he would raise them often on the flop. I bet again since I am sure I am behind and have a decent amount of clean outs.

River:
The board pairs and I don't think I can make him fold anything so I give up.
I am not sure my play is that great because I feel like my bets have very little fold equity.
What do you guys think would be the best way to play this hand on this specific board?

I think if the turn didn't bring me the NFD I would have just given up

[klamsauce]

I don't like just betting once on this board texture. If you say the turn doesn't bring you the nfd then you would give up. I would rather just c/f the flop if you were going to do that, because he is going to have so many weaker hands he calls the flop with that will fold to barrels later on. Betting only once, if you are going to bet at all, isn't an option imo.

I think it's okay the way you played it though. Firing off the third barrel is iffy in that a lot of his range is hard pressed to call, but the 10 helps him in general I think in that it either improves him or at the least makes it easier for him to click call with any Q in his range.

If the river bricked off I think it would almost be a mandatory third barrel though in that he likely is raising a strong hand on the flop given the board texture. KJ may be the only hand he plays slow on this flop and AQ is probably the only hand he may be comfortable calling the third barrel with so I think it would be a good play. There's just so much else in there he just can't call 3 with.

[preflopjitters]

I like how you played it. I think the flop is definitely a bet since he probably folds a lot of pps that he calls 3bets with and he is ahead of you with. 2nd barrel seems mandatory since you pick up a lot more outs. After he calls 2, I would be hesitant to fire a third, if only because from his preflop fold to 3bet stats, he just doesn't seem to be the folding type (perhaps because he is opening a stronger range than most?).

[lancelott_]

Originally Posted by preflopjitters

I like how you played it. I think the flop is definitely a bet since he probably folds a lot of pps that he calls 3bets with and he is ahead of you with. 2nd barrel seems mandatory since you pick up a lot more outs. After he calls 2, I would be hesitant to fire a third, if only because from his preflop fold to 3bet stats, he just doesn't seem to be the folding type (perhaps because he is opening a stronger range than most?).

you overestimate SOOO badly how small % of his range 22-88 (even if he has those) is vs all the suited/offsuit broadways and high aces that destroy this board, he is not folding any single hand aside form those pairs, and our cbet is really bad in a vaacume even with a gutshot and presumably discounted overs

Now, if i ever was to cbet this board, it would be with Ah, and with intention to fire all 3 streets, if im ONLY called on flop/turn (a ton of pair + SD/GSD he`ll call 1-2 but fold the river). Betting just flop, or just flop+turn is abuslotely burning money on fire

[Mustika]

Originally Posted by lancelott_

you overestimate SOOO badly how small % of his range 22-88 (even if he has those) is vs all the suited/offsuit broadways and high aces that destroy this board, he is not folding any single hand aside form those pairs, and our cbet is really bad in a vaacume even with a gutshot and presumably discounted overs

Now, if i ever was to cbet this board, it would be with Ah, and with intention to fire all 3 streets, if im ONLY called on flop/turn (a ton of pair + SD/GSD he`ll call 1-2 but fold the river). Betting just flop, or just flop+turn is abuslotely burning money on fire

Would you have fired this specific river as well? What about shoving the turn?

Also I think my A and K outs are really iffy. If I hit an A or K on the river and shove I get called by almost only better hands and check folding also sucks.

Against this player I am not even sure if betting the flop is correct, which seems ridicolous with 2 overs BDNFD and gutshot, but I think especially OOP our 2 overs get us in more trouble than they do good and the backdoor draw doesn't add much fold equity even if we hit in on the turn. So we are basically barreling a gutshot OOP against a range that is almost never folding flop or turn. Maybe this is a good hand for balancing, shoving turn or something but in a vacuum I am beginning to believe that check fold flop is the best play.

He had KhQ btw.