NL100 shoving over cbet w overs 3B pot vs LAG

[lancelott_]

Villian is 20/18/4 w 12% 3B ~200 hands, had 3B me quite a bit this session. Seems like a pretty LAGy (for FR) reg
pre i decided to defend and play back on some flops/play cool on some flops/obv give up on worse flops. I saw him 3Bing light at sd with small SC. I think he is folding out any AK AQ small PP that he 3Bs pre, and i have equity vs JJ TT 88 type of hands if called. Is maybe floating better and why then, or just give up and look for better spot (GSD+over or FD)? Also I think given the size of the pot shoving to maximize FE is better then raising smallish or i`m wrong? Thoughts?


Party, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 7 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

BB: $104.15
UTG: $57.25
UTG+1: $144.70
MP: $49.55
CO: $103.40
Hero (BTN): $120.30
SB: $100

Pre-Flop: Q K dealt to Hero (BTN)
2 folds, MP calls $1, CO folds, Hero raises to $4.50, SB raises to $15, 2 folds, Hero calls $10.50

Flop: ($32) 2 9 5 (2 Players)
SB bets $17, Hero raises to $105.30 and is All-In

[bubsodian]

very spewy u rep 0 2 pairs 0 sets and i doubt u play 9x jj,TT and QQ if u dont 4bet pre this way theres also 0 draws so expect 2 b looked up very light, i dont think he folds any pair or ak here he may fold aq but thats prolly the best hand he folds this is the wrong board 2 bluff

[lancelott_]

Assume he calls my flop shove with 4% of hands --> 99+ 55, 22, A9s, and one random combo of K9s
I have 16% equity if called vs that range with my KcQc

risk 85$ to win 49$ (so Break even at 85/85+34=0.63, so i need him to fold 64% or more for +EV shove, assuming I`m drawing dead if called)

But i have equity if called - 200$*equity (total pot size * equit in the pot) + -85$ (money i risk)


(0.16*200$ - 85$)*0.35 + 0.65*49$
(32$ - 85$)*0.35 + 0.65*49$ =
-18.55$ + 31.85 = 13$

This is EV of shoving assuming His pre 3B range is ~11.5%
he bet-folds ~7.5% of his light range (which is 60%)
and bet-calls 4% of his value range.
is my math/logic correct? somebody can break it down in a bit more straightforward manner?

[bubsodian]

2 solve for the fold equity u need first u need 2 find the equity u have vs his calling range i would assume his calling range is ak, 55+, a5, a9, k9, then weight these hands accordingly- since this cannot be done accurately i would assume like 15% equity at most vs his calling range, then solve for amount of fe we need from ur calvulation it looks like u have villain folding 65% of time which is very unreasonable since he will not cbet all of his air but u hav the formula correct i think do it like this
(1-x)(0.15(202) -85) +x(49) =0
solve for x 2 find breakeven fold equity
(x-1)(-54.7)=49x
54.7-54.7x=49x
103.7x=54.7
x=52.7%
idk u dont hav enough info on his air 3betting range 2 make this play i think the play is very bad just because i think he doesnt cbet this board with air much

[flaviusO]

You rep nothing, I'm calling with AK here.. I doubt you're playing a set or TT like this...

[ultrasPNT]

I'm calling with AK here

Really? I'm not.

[Donkadocus]

Villain will call with AK imo because he is used to people playing back at him because he is so LAG

[coachgp]

villain might look ya up with AK-AJ here just bc u dont have anything really, but its probably marginal since he's 3b such a wide range, and u have 2 bd draws with overs. if he 3b with 57s he prob gonna call it off (any pair that he made from 3b will call here) but he really cant do much if he 3b with like T8s type hands (scs w/o a pair, but have a gutter or somethin).

AK will call since u rep shit, and its likely to be the best hand. A4ss might even look you up, but i doubt it
his 3b range is prob a bit polarized. I wouldnt expect to see like A9s or 22/55 here all that much.

[Probability]

i flat since i dont raise anything for value on this flop, ever.

[minSim]

Originally Posted by Probability

i flat since i dont raise anything for value on this flop, ever.

Do you plan on making moves on certain turns that missed our hand, when villain bets?

I feel like on these super dry boards villains will barrel a ton, so imo we can't just call flop planning to bet when checked to and call when hit.