NL100 Zoom A3s facing river crAI

[niftinger]

Hey guys, got into a kinda tough spot in todays session.
villain is 20/18 over 1,1k hands
3bets 8% blinds versus button, call open 6 from SB
has not c/r the river yet

http://www.handconverter.com/hands/1816986
(I cant figure out how to use leggo handconverter with HM2, page just blanks after i put in the HH)

just went over this hand with a friend of mine, i need 34% to call on the river.
i have about 36% if he's always playing 44/55/JJ/76s like this.

do you think that the range im assuming is too tight?
do you think he ever checkraises just 5x here?

[link]

He is not all his sets playing like this. I think you have to call here, your range estimation is not accurate if you rate in at least a few bluffs and remove some combos he would c/r on flop or turn. With the highes flush I´m not folding, with a lower flush we could talk about it.

[bw07507]

He prob almost always 3bets JJ pre in these positions, there's only one combo of 55 left, and there's a chance he can do this with worse for value so I don't ever fold here.

[TylerDurden]

The fact you're both deep here has to weight this towards bluffs and worse value hands I'd think. His stronger hands are almost certainly wanting to get more money in on earlier streets bc you're deep. Also you can pretty easily just be giving up on the river here or check back a river club, so I'd expect stronger parts of his range to fast-play the turn.

[DRUK88]

Call.

As people said, he's 3betting JJ pre, he plays sets differently some percentage of the time, especially being deep.

It would be easier if he could have TP+bdfd combos that now give him a worse flush (KJcc for example), but still I think given odds we just have to call.

[bigdog6391]

i'd call and not be particularly happy about it against this opponent. There are so few hands that beat you, but he's also almost never bluffing unless he's turning something like qjs into a bluff which i doubt this random 100nl reg does. He seems to be playing tight from sb as well so i don't expect him to show up with 5x very often at all, and i'm struggling to come up with anything worse for value that he could shove.