QQ - all in pre vs fish ?

[Macio]

Guy is 43/5/6 over 100 hands.

He rivered me in 3 hands already for small pots and he is my target at the table.
One part of me tells me FOLD other one CALL as he can do it with such wide range. Also if anythinkg i am putting him on AK as I can't see him play AA or KK this way ?

OnGame Skin, $1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

BTN: $113.35
Hero (SB): $248
BB: $121
UTG: $100
CO: $96

HERO posts $0.50 BB posts $1

Pre-Flop: Q Q dealt to Hero (BB)
UTG bets $4 , CO calls $4, BTN folds,Hero raises to $15, BB reraises to $121 and is all in, UTG fold, CO folds, Hero ???????

[Fuzzy Logic]

Wow, that some cold 4 bet. I would find it impossible to fold here tbh versus this player. Call and suckout imo.

[Thrush]

Originally Posted by Macio

Guy is 43/5/6 over 100 hands.


One part of me tells me FOLD other one CALL as he can do it with such wide range.

Hes 43/5, Hes very loose but from his stats his PF raising range isn't wide at all, in fact its quite narrow. Best case scenario your flipping vs AK, pretty much everything else in his range is crushing you. This is a fold IMO.

[Fuzzy Logic]

Isn't he raising 5% of his hands here which is like

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

94,176,720 games 0.094 secs 1,001,880,000 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.414% 41.31% 01.11% 38901442 1042748.00 { 99+, AJs+, KQs, AKo }
Hand 1: 57.586% 56.48% 01.11% 53189782 1042748.00 { QdQh }

Now with the raise and reraise in front we can probably tighten to:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

63,355,248 games 0.005 secs 12,671,049,600 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.642% 50.12% 01.53% 31750608 967140.00 { JJ+, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 1: 48.358% 46.83% 01.53% 29670360 967140.00 { QdQh }

Only a fold if you don't like variance imo as a lot of fish will not open shove AA and KK 100% of the time.

[darkness]

he opens 5%, but this is a 3bet so it's likely to be a tighter range if his stats are meaningful. you need to be just over 42% to break even and against a range of AK/QQ+ you are just over 40%. that's probably the tightest range you're up against and i agree that he's more likely to 3bet ai w/AK so you can discount some of the AA/KK combos which gives you enough equity to call. obv he'll have you here sometimes and will pat himself on the back for having leveled you, but there's also a chance he is spazzing w/something you beat.

edit: that being said if he hasn't 3bet anyone yet i might fold this

[Thrush]

Originally Posted by Fuzzy Logic

Only a fold if you don't like variance imo as a lot of fish will not open shove AA and KK 100% of the time.

Its not an open shove its a 4bet shove. And I think this is AA/KK, a LOT actually. I wouldn't put AQ in his range unless I have a read that hes 4bet shoving 120bbs PF with AQ. Not to mention that since we have QQ it makes it a lot less likely. Vs a lot of villains this is a snap call but here I don't think so.

As darkness said knowing his 3bet% would be a key as to what I would do here.

[Fuzzy Logic]

We have 100 hands on the guy so even if we had a 3bet % it is meaningless over this small sample. Also, pokerstove takes card removal effects into account. I appreciate that its a 4bet and not an open shove, just an incorrect use of terminology, further down the post you see I take account of his open shoving and then my thoughts on his percieved range. Include the dead money already in the pot and I think this is a call more so than a fold and then qualified it by stating fold if you dont like variance.

So 106 to win 250 = 42%

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

49,656,816 games 0.005 secs 9,931,363,200 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.793% 57.93% 01.86% 28767898 923339.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 40.207% 38.35% 01.86% 19042240 923339.00 { QdQh }


So as long as he shoves only QQ+ and AK then its is slightly -EV. Once you add in any of AQ/JJ it is a call. Horses for courses imo.

[Anthony18]

Guys w/ 5 PFR don't 4bet AK imo. He either has a random blow-up or AA and KK.
Also you are a little bit deep. I would fold here readless.

[darkness]

wow disregard my post. for some reason i thought utg/co had limped. just fold

[Macio]

i called and he showed up with AK ... turned K unfortuantly