Steal and restealing

[etown]

I found myself in this situation a few times today and i opted for once to just continually put it in i got 3 folds today and once call and sucked out when the guy called.

Is there some math equity stuff that someone can say in lamens terms whether this is ok to do this with a wide range since most ppl imo will fold all but the top 5 percent of there range.

Party Poker, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 4 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

UTG: $279.15
Hero (BTN): $264.38
SB: $98
BB: $315.61

Pre-Flop: dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG raises to $7, Hero raises to $24, SB folds, BB calls $22, UTG raises to $77, Hero raises to $264.38 and is All-In, 2 folds

Results: $179 Pot



Party Poker, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

CO: $244.05
BTN: $471.94
Hero (SB): $235.20
BB: $325.80
UTG: $207.25
MP: $256.80

Pre-Flop: dealt to Hero (SB)
2 folds, CO raises to $7, BTN calls $7, Hero raises to $32, BB folds, CO raises to $74, BTN folds, Hero raises to $234.20 and is All-In, CO calls $161.20

Flop: ($479.40) (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

Turn: ($479.40) (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

River: ($479.40) (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

Results: $479.40 Pot ($3 Rake)
CO showed (two pairs, Queens and Eights) and LOST (-$235.20 NET)
Hero showed (a flush, Eight high) and WON $476.40 (+$241.20 NET)

i cant find the other ones but the situations basically all have lots of dead money in the pot and lots of dynamics where everyone can be stealing and restealing

[Somnius]

To do this, you'll have to make some assumptions first. You say they'll call with 5% of their hands, but what are they raising with, you'll need that to get your equity. Lets take your second example. And assume villain is 3betting light with 15% of hands and will only call top 5%.


Ev when he folds:

He will be folding 66.67% of the time (15/5).

EVfold = .66(123 already in the pot) = 81.18

Ev when he calls:

33.33% of the time he will call

EVcall = win when called -lose when called

Assumptions:

Top 5% = 88+, AJs+

67s against top5% = 28% equity.

EVcall = .28(471.4) - .7196(234.2)
=-36.53

Overall EV of play = 81.18 - .33(36.53) = 69.12

So assuming he's 3betting 15% of hands and only calling with 88+,AJs+, this play has an ev of 69.12.


Of course, these ranges could be all off, but the process is farily simple. Find the equities in pokerstove and you can just replace those in the formulas, as well as the 3bet %s and %s called etc.

The clean formula is:

EV= EVwhenhefolds + EVwhenwe'recalled
EV = x(pot) + y(evwin when called - evlose when called)

x=% of the time you're taking it down right there
y=% of the time you're getting called

EVwinwhencalled = equity against his range x overall end pot
EVlosewhencalled = equity of his range against our hand x our investment/stack if all-in

Hope that helps.

[Probability]

4 Bet Preflop EV Calculation

Thank me later.

[Somnius]

The way I did it is much easier

[etown]

thanks i somnius that makes sense to me im goona check out probs thing since i keep see matt suggesting it everywhere

[Probability]

lol, its all I got to give.