Turn straight into bluff deep on the river?

[Zaza]

Zoom poker again. Villain is 25 20 pretty tight utg so far, no special reads at this point other than the stats.
Cbet % high 87 .
I dont really think the stats are that relevant here since he can only have a straight or air.
I dont think he s bluffing this way very often , even though I got 2 straight blockers.
So I m thinking about jamming the river since I can have boats and he cant. I could very well show up with kj k10 99 10s here and have a few straights myself. Bottom line its very hard for me to have any air in my range, especially after calling the turn overbet I can only really have Aj hh maybe 98hh if u wanna stretch it.
My question is, do u think Im gonna get em to fold aq here often enough for it to be good jam?


Poker Stars, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

BTN: $200
SB: $262.31
BB: $242.40
UTG: $520.99
Hero (MP): $813.31
CO: $302.27

Pre-Flop: Q Q dealt to Hero (MP)
UTG raises to $6, Hero calls $6, 4 folds

Flop: ($15) T K 9 (2 Players)
UTG bets $12, Hero calls $12

Turn: ($39) J (2 Players)
UTG bets $52, Hero calls $52

River: ($143) K (2 Players)
UTG bets $127

Results: $143 Pot ($143 Rake)
UTG showed and LOST (-$70 NET)
Hero showed Q Q and LOST (-$70 NET)

[FabledHero]

Looks like a very good bluff spot given how deep you are. Unless he's an idiot he should know you aren't shoving a worse str8 for value so his hand is basically AA. Even though you are shoving a worse str8 so AA would lose to you haha. Point being it's a tough call for him to make, and I think there's a good chance that he may not give you enough credit for turning a str8 into a bluff. Really it depends on how good he thinks you are and ofc how good he is. If he's good enough to think you're good enough to turn your hand into a bluff here and he realizes that his range is capped and it's hard for you to be bluffing then he might call. I would say it's more likely this isn't the case against most regulars.

[klink10k]

the fact that you block the hands you want to bluff makes bluffing pretty awful.

[coolestgeek]

Originally Posted by FabledHero

he realizes that his range is capped and it's hard for you to be bluffing then he might call. I would say it's more likely this isn't the case against most regulars.

uhm he raised utg and bets all 3 streets, how is his range capped? he can have every straight and every boat

[FabledHero]

Originally Posted by coolestgeek

uhm he raised utg and bets all 3 streets, how is his range capped? he can have every straight and every boat

I highly doubt anyone is over betting the turn with a set ever.

[Zaza]

I dont think anyone overbets the turn here with just qx so his range to me looks like Aq , further I dont think people bluff this particular river once I call the turn overbet my range is gonna be made out of straights and boats or trips, so I dont really see how ur argument makes sense , that bluffing here just because I block some of his value hands is awful.The fact of the matter is that he's just gonna have it here.

[Zaza]

Originally Posted by coolestgeek

uhm he raised utg and bets all 3 streets, how is his range capped? he can have every straight and every boat

U probably misread the hand and missed the overbet on the turn which dramatically changes the action and makes his range capped.

[klink10k]

ah he overbet turn didn't see that... still hate it i doubt anyone folds AQ there

[coolestgeek]

ya didnt see that my bad

fwiw i agree with klink

[FabledHero]

Originally Posted by Zaza

I dont think anyone overbets the turn here with just qx so his range to me looks like Aq , further I dont think people bluff this particular river once I call the turn overbet my range is gonna be made out of straights and boats or trips, so I dont really see how ur argument makes sense , that bluffing here just because I block some of his value hands is awful.The fact of the matter is that he's just gonna have it here.

I agree. He can also have some air occasionally over-betting turn to setup a river bluff to get you off Qx.