two pair drawy board facing heat

[barnabus1989]

No reads no history
I'm always calling here but is it a profitable call?

btn 32/14/af.15 over 81 hands
sb 23/16 af1 over 123 hands

Party Poker, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

UTG: $98.88
Hero (MP): $120.40
CO: $111.21
BTN: $112.93
SB: $138.18
BB: $127.11

Pre-Flop: 6 5 dealt to Hero (MP)
UTG folds, Hero raises to $4, CO folds, BTN calls $4, SB calls $3.50, BB folds

Flop: ($13) 5 9 4 (3 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $7, BTN calls $7, SB calls $7

Turn: ($34) 6 (3 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $23, BTN calls $23, SB raises to $127.18 and is All-In

Results: $103 Pot ($103 Rake)
Hero showed 6 5 and LOST (-$34 NET)
BTN showed and LOST (-$34 NET)
SB showed and LOST (-$34 NET)

[ascension1223]

This screams set to me, but I think that with the BTN in the hand as well you're right to call. You could improve and there is always the chance that SB is really terrible at this game and is misplaying something.

[ascension1223]

I thought about editing my entry but decided to leave it there because that was my first reaction. On a second look however I think we need to get specific. The BTN I don't care about at all, I am 90% he is on a draw and we are winning, so let's concentrate on the SB. Assuming his range here is ultra tight look at what I came up with stove. Player 3 is the SB

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

309,372 games 0.547 secs 565,579 games/sec

Board: 5d 9d 4c 6c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.190% 33.63% 00.56% 104047 1728.50 { 6s5s }
Hand 1: 29.611% 28.25% 01.36% 87410 4198.00 { 88-66, 33-22, AdKd, AdQd, AdJd, AdTd, Ad9d, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, KdQd, KdJd, KdTd, Kd9d, Kd8d, Kd7d, Kd6d, Kd5d, Kd4d, Kd3d, Kd2d, QdJd, QdTd, Qd9d, Qd8d, Qd7d, Qd6d, Qd5d, Qd4d, Qd3d, Qd2d, JdTd, Jd9d, Jd8d, Jd7d, Jd6d, Jd5d, Jd4d, Jd3d, Jd2d, Td9d, Td8d, Td7d, Td6d, Td5d, Td4d, Td3d, Td2d, 9d8d, 9d7d, 9d6d, 9d5d, 9d4d, 9d3d, 9d2d, 8d7d, 8d6d, 8d5d, 8d4d, 8d3d, 8d2d, 7d6d, 7d5d, 7d4d, 7d3d, 7d2d, 6d5d, 6d4d, 6d3d, 6d2d, 5d4d, 5d3d, 5d2d, 4d3d, 4d2d, 3d2d, T9o, 98o, 87o, 76o, 65o, 54o, 43o, 32o }
Hand 2: 36.199% 35.40% 00.80% 109519 2469.50 { 99+, 66-44, AcKc, AcQc, 8c7c, 8d7d, 4c3c, 4d3d, 87o }


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So given that we win 1/3 of the time against this super tight range and that we are risking our stack for what could be a pot 3x our stack. But notice that it only COULD be 3x our stack, and a lot of the time our opponent on the BTN could have a weaker draw he folds. Couple with this we are calling an all-in rather than shoving, we have zero fold equity to boost our ev. So I think this is ultra close but a fold without history on our villain in the SB, we would need to know he can ship it in here with like a A9 of clubs type hand to justify this.

[barnabus1989]

I didn't think he'd just call on such a coordinated board with two others in the pot if he'd flopped a set so all I'm really worried about is 66,78,23 here. I not sure what hands he shoves here that I've got beat though thats the only thing maybe just overplaying a combo draw?

[ascension1223]

Well I would typically agree, slowplaying a set on this board multi-way is at the very least, unorthodox. But as you said, what would he shove here? Without history I feel like it is ultimately a rather large assumption that he couldn't try some sort of trickery with a set here. For all we know his thought process could be "Well I have a set, so I will call and when they put a little more in on the turn I can shove and draws will have to call because of the multi-way pot odds" and not even THINK of what could happen if a diamond hits. Of course, it is doubtful he is thinking this way, but I do not feel it is necessarily better to assume he is not- at the risk of our stack, If that makes any sense.

[barnabus1989]

yeah I guess its still only 100nl so I can't give everyone credit for being a decent thinking player. The more I look at the hand the more I think it's a fold though.

[Probability]

I think it's a fold too. Unless he does not 3 bet, can have AA here, AND think it's the nuts.

[vinnie_brix]

I don't think this type of player ever semibluffs here and i dont think he goes mental with a worse hand so surely this is a fold? The only thing that gets me about spots like this is that his range is so tiny and because of that i convince myself to call anyway (how many combos of 78 are there anyway etc etc). I can't see him every having a bluff range and I dont think he slowplays 45 to get it ai on the turn. I think it's a fold

[vinnie_brix]

Just out of interest if the 9 was a club and the 4 a dim does it make a dif to anyone?

[elzino]

i'm going to say it's a fold imo... a player with an agg. factor of 1 typically won't raise without a monster and until he's comfortable with the amount of money in the pot. once you bet the turn and the BTN calls he's probably satisfied with the amount of slowplaying he's done and is ready to get it in.