mythrilfox - $50 NL

[mythrilfox]

Originally Posted by guitarizt

1:30 KK I like the turn check. He probably folds TT-JJ on the turn anyways a
decent amount and more likely to call river if turn checks through.

it's a weird spot because if he's aware of his own hand range he really shouldn't call any weaker pairs to a bet/ck/bet OR to a double barrel, but he's also 8/4 and not sitting with a full stack, so I'm pretty certain we get one more bet out of those hands w/ either line. I didn't really "screw up the math" on an overcard coming on the river - I know it doesn't happen all that often - I just think a guy who is playing 8/4 without a full stack is not folding 99-QQ on the turn to a half pot bet, and so betting turn guarantees we get a call from those hands when he might c/f them the handful of times a Q/J comes off on the river. obviously there's also some concern with him hitting a boat as well, and even though these are, you know, 10% outcomes, if we assume he calls those hands to either bet/ck/bet or bet/bet, then bet/bet is obv better.

it might sound counterintuitive to say that because he's playing so insanely tight at a 6max table he will be loose enough to call the turn w/ those hands, but in my mind that just means he isn't very good, and since he isn't very good I think he calls those hands on the turn, esp. since we could be barreling with a FD or a gutshot. take away the FD & checking probably becomes best.

there's also the fact that river will occasionally be dicey - if he decides QQ/JJ is the best hand and bets a normal amt (in the hand he bet half pot, but if he bet a normal amount I am not thrilled at all to have KK) we might end up folding the best hand, whereas by betting the turn ourselves we get to control exactly how much money is going into the pot.

all that being said, truthfully I would imagine the diff in EV between the two lines is quite small.

8:00 AK I found interesting. A 3.05 bet into 4.07 pot has to work 43% of the time
to b/e. At first I thought he doesn't fold near enough on the turn after calling
flop since I expect him to call Tx again, but if you have 18% equity against his
calling range and have no implied odds you only need him to fold turn 23% for the
bet to be b/e. I was surprised how little he has to fold turn. I guess it's
pretty obvious cause you could just go 43% - 18% to get about 25%. I never really
thought it before and just would nit it up and check.

another thing I don't think I mentioned about this hand is the guy was super loose so far, so I think he may peel his SDs again on the turn. additionally, his PF looseness means he def has hands like KJo, J9s in his range, and possibly even like J9o or 89o. this bet is definitely better if the turn is a 2 instead of a 6, because he's more likely to peel his SDs on the turn, but I still felt like he seemed silly enough to be calling some SDs again on the turn. so in addition to getting a few better hands to fold (77-99, mayyyyybe JT tho I agree that usually calls turn from this dude), we get some hands to fold that have good equity against us (79/78), get called by some worse hands (AJ/KJ/J9/89), have decent equity when behind, and avoid nasty river decisions where he can put us into some rough spots.

8:00 T9s I like giving up river because I don't think he folds nearly enough draw
combos to make up for value combos. I know it's a small sample but this villain
looks like he could be a 30/15 type. These player types especially love
minraising the flop with pairs to see where they're at. Even the taggier people
will do it too and I don't see draws here often at all.

yeah I meant to post something about this, but I agree you usually see pairs when ppl take this line and draws less often.

17:00 AA I hate raising these spots because I feel like I'm never ahead when the
money goes in, but at the same time I think AA is ahead of their donking range. I
am too nitty and raising and getting it in is fine?

I think raising when two fullstacked regs are in the hand (or maybe even one, depending on the specifics of the other player) is usually pretty bad, but doigotit was pretty fishy, and robertrath was a complete unknown and complete unknowns end up being fishy relatively often at these stakes. so yeah I do think it is kinda a mandatory raise here. but you are right it looks way too strong vs. people who can read hands, esp without a FD on board. I prob shoulda made the raise a tad smaller looking back on this but oh well.

22:00 A8 At first I didn't like the turn bet because this guy's been so fit or
fold, but it's kind of the same thing as the AK hand at 8:00 where you have so
much equity against his calling range that if he ever folds it's fine. I like a
turn bet better now.

ya like I said, didn't have much time to think about it in the video and betting can never really be that bad with a draw this strong (unless we are bet/folding it a ton, but he prob ain't raising turn all that often), but honestly I think I prefer checking. he might fold some like QJ with a diamond type hand, but I think even AxTd type hands as well as a ton of pairs are calling again so our fold equity is pretty damn low here. I'm sure it's still +EV, but you need to compare it with the EV of checking, and I think that since we are putting in another bet with somewhere from 25-35% equity at least 75% of the time (if not more) checking has to be better. 3-barreling is an interesting possibility. think I'll run a stox ev sim on this and see what I come up with.

43:00 A9 Hand I have no idea what's going on on the river. He should have some
kind of made hand and it's weird for him to turn a made hand into a bluff on the
river but I agree with what you said about the unknown factor. I haven't seen
this line enough to know what's best on river.

think I shoulda folded here. I have basically never been donked into in that spot so I don't have any hardcore evidence to back up what the best play is, but a couple things can be said about it. first, his betsizing makes me want to fold, both b/c we are getting worse odds and because a bet that large should make an A5 type hand a lottttt less likely. second, he's a fish, so he can have 4x for sure. third, he's a fish, so I don't think him playing AK/AQ like this are out of the question. fourth, the only air he can really show up with is 57 or 35, and some combos of those might not call pre and they might not decide to bluff.

so I feel like we are looking at AQ/AK (sometimes), AJ+ (quite a bit) for value, occasionally some random split which I think should be pretty discounted b/c of his betsize, or a few combos of missed SDs. just not feeling us being good 51% or whatever here.

46:40 AT I like the three barrel. I don't think he ever folds 88-JJ on turn and
the river heart is great for your perceived range.

ya, though I still shove non-heart rivers since he was reggy and he shouldn't expect me to 3 barrel that often as a bluff since your average reg at these stakes doesn't do it very often. stacks were pretty good for it too.

[Koerperkarle]

very good video!
and also had a good laugh at doigotit