1:30 KK I like the turn check. He probably folds TT-JJ on the turn anyways a
decent amount and more likely to call river if turn checks through.
Simulated 100000 Holdem Hands (Monte Carlo)
Simulation by Slice - The ev++ Equity Calculator
Board :: AdAs7c3s
Player Equity Win Hi Tie Hi Range
1 49.3 47.2 4.1 QQ
2 50.7 48.7 4.1 TT-QQ,AQ,AJ
8:00 AK I found interesting. A 3.05 bet into 4.07 pot has to work 43% of the time
to b/e. At first I thought he doesn't fold near enough on the turn after calling
flop since I expect him to call Tx again, but if you have 18% equity against his
calling range and have no implied odds you only need him to fold turn 23% for the
bet to be b/e. I was surprised how little he has to fold turn. I guess it's
pretty obvious cause you could just go 43% - 18% to get about 25%. I never really
thought it before and just would nit it up and check.
8:00 T9s I like giving up river because I don't think he folds nearly enough draw
combos to make up for value combos. I know it's a small sample but this villain
looks like he could be a 30/15 type. These player types especially love
minraising the flop with pairs to see where they're at. Even the taggier people
will do it too and I don't see draws here often at all.
17:00 AA I hate raising these spots because I feel like I'm never ahead when the
money goes in, but at the same time I think AA is ahead of their donking range. I
am too nitty and raising and getting it in is fine?
22:00 A8 At first I didn't like the turn bet because this guy's been so fit or
fold, but it's kind of the same thing as the AK hand at 8:00 where you have so
much equity against his calling range that if he ever folds it's fine. I like a
turn bet better now.
43:00 A9 Hand I have no idea what's going on on the river. He should have some
kind of made hand and it's weird for him to turn a made hand into a bluff on the
river but I agree with what you said about the unknown factor. I haven't seen
this line enough to know what's best on river.
46:40 AT I like the three barrel. I don't think he ever folds 88-JJ on turn and
the river heart is great for your perceived range.