RedJoker - Poker Math (Part 2/3)

[RedJoker]

Video Description: In this part 2 of 3 PowerPoint presentation video on poker math. Philip discusses at the table math including outs, ratios, percentages and combinatorics.

Video Link: http://www.leggopoker.com/videos/training/699/

Link To Part 1: http://www.leggopoker.com/videos/training/688/

Discuss here!

[LevelE]

Brilliantly Fundamental!

Your series will soon become a must see for all beginners as well as any experienced players (Aejones?) who are looking to brush up on the foundation of poker math.

I am sure many players would agree that you have condensed in two videos what took most of us hours of toil (and then some) to come up with.

Thank you for your time and efforts. Truly appreciated.

[RedJoker]

You have 5 outs, calculate your equity on the flop and on the turn.

On the turn there are 52 - 6 = 46 cards unknown.

5/46 = 0.1087 = 10.87%

On the flop there are 52 - 5 = 47 cards unknown. On the flop we will miss 47 - 5 = 42 times and on the turn we will miss 46 - 5 = 41 times. The probability that we miss both streets is (42/47)(41/46) so we must hit:

1 - (42/47)(41/46) = 1 - 0.7965 = 0.2035 = 20.35%


Approximate your equity using the 2 & 4 method.

On the flop:

(5x2)+1 = 11%

On the turn:

(4x2) - 0 = 20%

How much of the effective stacks must go into the pot on the flop before you’re committed?

EV = (equity x amount you win) – [(1 – equity) x amount you lose)]

0 = (0.2035 x ($100+Y)) - (0.7965 x ($100-Y))

0 = $20.35 + 0.2035Y - $79.65 + 0.7965Y

Y(0.2035 + 0.7965) = $59.30

Y = $59.30

59.3% of the effective stacks must go in before you're committed.


What about the turn?

EV = (equity x amount you win) – [(1 – equity) x amount you lose)]

0 = (0.1087 x ($100+Y)) - (0.8913 x ($100-Y))

0 = $10.87 + 0.1087Y - $89.13 + 0.8913Y

Y(0.1087 + 0.8913) = $78.26

Y = $78.26

78.26% of the effective stacks must go in before you're committed.


Convert 6.5:1 into a percentage.

1/(6.5 + 1) = 13.33%

Convert 45% equity into a ratio.

55%:45% = 11:9 = 1.22:1 against

There’s $11 in the pot on the flop, your opponent bets $8, how large would a pot sized raise be?

($8 x 3) + $11 = $35

If this raise puts you all-in, what was the SPR in this hand?

$35:$11 = 3.18:1

How many combinations are in the range 66+, A9s+, AJo+, T9s-KQs?

66+ - 9 x 6 = 54 combos
A9s+ - 5 x 4 = 20 combos
AJo+ - 3 x 12 = 36 combos
T9s-KQs - 4 x 4 = 16 combos

54 + 20 + 36 + 16 = 124 combos in total.

If you hold KJo, how many combinations are left in that range?

66+ - (7 x 6) + (2 x 3) = 48 combos
A9s+ - (3 x 4) + (2 x 3) = 18 combos
AJo+ - (1 x 12) + (2 x 9) = 30 combos
T9s-KQs - (1 x 4) + (3 x 3) = 13 combos

48 + 18 + 30 + 13 = 109 combos in total.

[RedJoker]

Originally Posted by LevelE

Brilliantly Fundamental!

Your series will soon become a must see for all beginners as well as any experienced players (Aejones?) who are looking to brush up on the foundation of poker math.

I am sure many players would agree that you have condensed in two videos what took most of us hours of toil (and then some) to come up with.

Thank you for your time and efforts. Truly appreciated.

.

[steel108]

Every new member should be required to watch this series. Is there any way to have all the ratios, equities and stuff uploaded somewhere?

[steel108]

RedJoker mentioned it, but it needs to be said again. JUST BECAUSE YOU WERE VALUE BETTING THE TURN AND HAVE 33% OF YOUR STACK COMMITED DOESN'T MEAN YOU CALL A SHOVE. If you have JJ and value bet the turn on 9732r and the nittiest of nit shoves, YOU FOLD. You still have to do the math based on the pot odds and your likely equity. In this case, you probably have 2 outs and can't call.

A better example is with preflop play. You're in a 1000NL 6 max game with A5s playing at 100bb effective. For some reason you 4B to $330, you are commited to calling his shove. You will have roughly 35.5% equity even against only his value range (this doesn't include his bluffs)

[aejones]

I thought it was a good idea that Leggo have a series, but I never could have imagined that we'd get Philip to do something that was so comprehensive and easily applicable for math people and also 'feel' players.

This is definitely going to be my first recommendation to many people looking to play online poker, or even players who think they're weak at the math aspect of the game. I hope word of mouth travels on how great this series is, it deserves as many views as possible.

[RedJoker]

Originally Posted by steel108

Every new member should be required to watch this series. Is there any way to have all the ratios, equities and stuff uploaded somewhere?

Sure, let me know if there's anything else you'd like.

6:1 against = 14% equity (86%:14%)
5:1 against = 17% equity (83%:17%)
4:1 against = 20% equity (80%:20%)
3:1 against = 25% equity (75%:25%)
2:1 against = 33% equity (67%:33%)
1:1 = 50% equity (50%:50%)


For 1 card:
1 overcard – 3 outs = 14.5:1 against = 6.38% equity (93.62%:6.38%)
2 overcards – 6 outs = 7:1 against = 12.77% equity (87.23%:12.77%)
Straight draw – 8 outs = 5:1 against = 17.02% equity (82.98%:17.02%)
Flush draw – 9 outs = 4.2:1 against = 19.15% equity (80.85%:19.15%)

For 2 cards:
1 overcard – 3 outs = 7:1 against = 12.49% equity (87.51%:12.49%)
2 overcards – 6 outs = 3:1 against = 24.14% equity (75.86%:24.14%)
Straight draw – 8 outs = 2.2:1 against = 31.45% equity (68.55%:31.45%)
Flush draw – 9 outs = 1.9:1 against = 34.95% equity (65.05%:34.95%)

[RedJoker]

Originally Posted by aejones

I thought it was a good idea that Leggo have a series, but I never could have imagined that we'd get Philip to do something that was so comprehensive and easily applicable for math people and also 'feel' players.

This is definitely going to be my first recommendation to many people looking to play online poker, or even players who think they're weak at the math aspect of the game. I hope word of mouth travels on how great this series is, it deserves as many views as possible.

Thanks Aaron, I'm fond of your videos as well.

[Maximus13]

Glad to see you still making vids... Keep up the great work!