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Stroggos 11-30-2011 07:39 AM

5bet bluffing
 
simple preflop question, which i have answered already, but want people to go over it and see if i made a mistake. I havn't explained my thought process, but i copied my method of calculation from foxwoodsfiend, in one of his old coaching videos.

is 5betting 55 profitable vs a button 4bet range from a reg, if so how profitable is it? How often do they need to fold?. I have given the reg a 4bet-call range of AQo+ and 66+. which is 6.5% of hands.

when we jam vs light 4bet call range from nl200 reg, our ev is 32%. and they are 4betting 6.5% of the time for value with a range of AQo+ and 66+. This is a range i made up but is somewhat accurate i think.

we are going to try find out how often they need to 4bet fold for it to work.
x=how often they need to 4bet fold for us to be breakeven.

32% ($200+44+1=245) + 65.8% (-180)
78.4-114.2 = -35
risking 35$ to win $67. How often does this need to work?
X*(67)*(1-x)(-35) =0
67x+35x-35=0
102x=35
x=.34

6.5% x.34= 2.21.

So if reg is 4bet folding more than 2.21% of the times they get 3bet, assuming they are 4bet calling 6.5% of the times they get 3bet. Then it is profitable to 5bet jam 55.

d2themfi 12-01-2011 12:12 AM

Re: 5bet bluffing
 
Under even slightly more favorable assumptions where BB 4bet/folds slightly more, 5bet shoving 55 loses you -8.5bbs in EV







At a 4bet/call % of 58% shoving becomes +EV for .5bbs






Stroggos 12-01-2011 07:08 PM

Re: 5bet bluffing
 
thanks for answer

guitarizt 12-02-2011 01:42 AM

Re: 5bet bluffing
 
cr ev looks pretty awesome. Guess I should spend some time learning it. If I'm reading the chart right it looks like I can 4b bluff people some regs considerably more than I'm doing now and I should chill out with 5b jamming any pp against some people.


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