| zwoop |
first |
 |
| pokertard |
I think you made a sorta bad call with the A6 of diamonds a few hands earlier. Based on what I had seen up untill this point the last hand is a pretty clear fold.
I could speculate on why you might want to call.
I am pretty sure most of the responses will be to fold. |
|
| ascension1223 |
I would snap fold, given everything all reads etc. I also have a lot of justification for this; A) We have really only seen him this aggressive with top pair and at least a good kicker, so I put him on KJ more than AJ ( though I believe he can certainly have that here) further we have seen him merge his hands opening JT and QJ. Thats four hands that have owned us on this river, all of which I include in his range here. B) I feel that to justify a call here based on flow and dynamics we would be overestimating the dynamic which exists between ourselves and this villain, I have to add a disclaimer here because I play 25nl and so dynamics basically do not exist, but I have witnessed enough play through videos to know that players heavily affected by dynamics (to the point to justify this call) exist primarily at nosebleed stakes (my uninformed but intelligent guess) and C) if we are wrong, we are risking a lot more than our chips here, we are risking him taking a significant gain, and he could quit and go take a shower because of how hard he's worked in this session, which is exactly what you yourself mentioned earlier and I completely agree with. To me, calling with J5 here is clearly a mistake. |
|
| shootaa |
After that AA hand when he had KQ, I think its a fold as well. I don't know if he's shipping in sevens there or AT, but we do know he can ship in KJ and there aren't any flop semibluffs except 34, which he probably hasn't been defending.
Basically, I think he has JT-JA way too often here, you've shown you can slowplay bigger hands on the flop and turn, and he's still jamming. Like I said, it's obviously a sick spot for him to jam his entire range if he's like 4th leveling you, but we don't know if he's betting turns with weaker made hands < Jx and DO know he can merge. |
|
| shootaa |
Oh, sick video BTW |
|
| PplusAD |
this HU series was oen of the sickest stuff i ve ever seen
A+ |
|
| Dustylove |
I just saw the hand I was like "wtf fold", but after a couple of seconds of thinking I feel that I wanna call, and since it took less then a normal timebank for me to figure out some decent reasons to call I'd probably click call and look stupid.
First of all I'd like to say that I noticed that he said something along the lines of "nice call" when you called him in the AA hand, which probably indicates that his play was something like a valuebluff or a sick merge, if not a pure "turn made hand into a bluff"-play. This means that he'll probably consider you at least a little bit cally and uncapable of making really big folds; ie he doesn't ever think you'll fold an overpair and quite possibly not AJ or JK+ ever. However, he doesn't have any reason to think that you'll make hopeless herocalls either because you've been playing pretty solid so far.
Thus, his valuerange should be something like AJ+, maybe KJ but I doubt it. He has no reason what so ever to turn it into a bluff on this board since your hand range should consist of marginal made hands he beats anyway that would require you to do a big ass herocall for him to get value from and a fair bit of slowplayed monsters. Also, you can have an 8 a lot more often then he can. Thus I'd put his valuerange as something as 22,55,AJs,AJo and maybe 20% of the possible JJ+ and J8s.
As for bluffs he's been leading a fair bit and we know that he does it with less then premium holdings at least some of the time and it's also conceivable that he's been opening up his leading range a bit since we know that he's been calling us a bit lighter. The river looks really strong since the only draws he could have is like some random weak straight draws. He'll likely notice this and it's therefore in his eyes a pretty good spot to bluff since there's a lot of mid pairs and stuff we shouldn't be able to call with. I can't remember the exact board, but if there is like 3 or 4 possible gutshots/oestraight draws (A4,A3,34 and something?) we're like 50/50 vs his range and should call if he does this a big majority of the time. And even if he doesn't he might have some hopeless made hand, like a lone 5 or 66 which he decides has no sd-value what so ever.
However, I'm a calling station and when I feel it is this close and don't think it could ever be a too big of a mistake to fold either, but you should at least call like half the time or a little less here unless he's totally incapable of bluffing in this spot. |
|
| PplusAD |
this HU series was oen of the sickest stuff i ve ever seen
A+ |
|
| MYNAMEIZGREG |
Hey Guys,
The video will be down for about an hour as I fix the end. |
|
| MYNAMEIZGREG |
Back up! |
|
| Relvin |
love your HU vids so much |
|
| murph0511 |
the hand you had with JJ you 3 bet then you lead out half the pot... he was sitting with maybe 100bb behind... what do you do if he raises you? do you think the amount matters? |
|
| MYNAMEIZGREG |
I'm pretty much not folding, so I guess call and c/c the turn (or c/r the turn if he somehow leaves himself with 1/10 the pot left) |
|
| deaders |
Excellent video, I thought the analysis was top quality with some interesting hands in there. |
|
| VarianceLab |
Wonderful video! Thank you! |
|
| TemFriendPat |
Great stuff Greg top quality as always. Thank-you. |
|
| As armas |
Great vid.
the last hand I say fold mainly because:
1) the AA hand he pot lead the whole way with KQ and shoved river
2) the AQ hand vs your KcQ same thing
3) the AK vs your 1010 on the river he gave up
Also he was back in the green for the match and my feel for his psychology is that he would not risk it all on this bluff. A bluff could be pot or less but not an overbet. You pair of jacks is pretty face up here. Does he expect you to fold it? Prob not, so he wants to extract the most from you since he doesnt think you will fold your J.... |
|
| bancomat |
what was the decision or the thinking process if greg had J with T or Q kicker?
what about a reply of the other pros ? because its a very interesting hand after we saw the AA hand and the opponent had KQ |
|
| FabledHero |
The J5 hand is pretty interesting. While it's true he has been merging really well in that specific spot, he also has seen us call down there with premium hands AA and KQ, therefore he won't be doing it with worse than KJ i feel. I'm actually not sure if he does it with KJ even this time after he mergeowned himself earlier. He has seen us go into bluffcatcher call down with AA and KQ so if he has QJ I just don't think he's shoving river this time, he's shown us he can merge so he shouldn't expect hero calls. He is losing the match and I think is a bit frusterated so I think he's trying to use his merging image to bluff us here out of a weak made hand, weak jack or mid PP. I just think due to his added frusteration and the dryness of the board he is taking a lot of stabs with some Ax gutters, turning mid PP into bluff and maybe 34 suited as well. he could even have 2 overcards just running some random bluff. We don't have to worry about a set of 5's due to the 5 in our hand, and our jack makes his top pair a little less likely.
I just think he has to be frustrated to have been up so big and he has shown us he can have a hand in this spot so it's a really convienant spot for him to jam river as a bluff. I think we only gotta be good 40% of the time if I recall. |
|
| bancomat |
yes but he won that AQ vs KQ hand and its back in the game. this doesnt mean hes frustrated... |
|
| fearless |
at 28 minutes you call flop with flushdraw and raise turn A on 43J A, you have the same spot at 49 minutes with 97cc on 45J Q. why didnt you raise on the latter? is it because stacks were a little deeper on the first so you wouldnt feel obligated to call? you didnt really say what you would to do a raise on 28 min either, but i guess that would be an easy fold given math and how likely he is to have a dominated draw.
Also, if you raise that turn and he folds again. You think that that last hand would be easier to play? you could just raise turn again and expect him to stack off very light. If not, if you think he's bluffing a lot, then i guess you should call. It did seem like he thought you gave his leads too much respect and would start to bluff in those spots, but thats just an awful board to bluff.
Oh and btw, A+ videos! |
|
| xMufloNx |
:-* |
|
| SirThomas |
I agree with most in this thread.
Looking at both vidoes and which hands we have seen that he shoved on the River, I think it is a pretty clear fold.
Because I don't see much he is showing that we can beat here, since our kicker is no good. But if we had had A,J or something, it had been a whole other story imo.
Nice video btw. (as always) |
|
| saddu |
hey greg, watched the videos some days ago and it is superb, lately i'm playng hu 50nl and i'm crushing people nearly without 3-betting lately becouse against most players seems like i don't need to do that becouse
1) they open sooo tight from the sb and play weak thight passive when on bb
2) some miniraise pf and play really bad/passive post flop
3) when i rarely 3-bet i lead many flops oop and it seems to work well
4) often they don't rebuy after losing so we play short..
do you think can be optimal to rarely 3-bet against these opponents? (they remembered me somehow how you owned this guy on the video nearly without 3 betting) |
|
| Indomitable |
yea,for me too it's pretty easy river fold.AJ or KJ are most likely hands here. |
|
| Jordan |
He flats such a wide, but tight range PF (KQ/KJ/AJ/22-JJ) but then leads so often if he has what he wants us to think is a "strong" hand...
As far as game flow goes, I think this is a really good spot for him to shove the river with his entire range, and thus I'd argue to call and expect to see something like 88 (quads) or the more likely 99/TT.
He's seen us play overpair like this, so while I do think he'd bet a Jack on this river for value, I don't think he'd overbet ship unless he had JJJ (obviously unlikely) or quad 8s.
I'm not 100% positive what level he is thinking on, maybe it really is just that basic, "I has a Jack I'm all in", but IMO, I think he is capable of shoving this river turning his TT/99 into a bluff, as your hand looks like a weak Jack (but obviously you can play KK/AA this way too). |
|
| MYNAMEIZGREG |
at 28 minutes you call flop with flushdraw and raise turn A on 43J A, you have the same spot at 49 minutes with 97cc on 45J Q. why didnt you raise on the latter? is it because stacks were a little deeper on the first so you wouldnt feel obligated to call? you didnt really say what you would to do a raise on 28 min either, but i guess that would be an easy fold given math and how likely he is to have a dominated draw.
Also, if you raise that turn and he folds again. You think that that last hand would be easier to play? you could just raise turn again and expect him to stack off very light. If not, if you think he's bluffing a lot, then i guess you should call. It did seem like he thought you gave his leads too much respect and would start to bluff in those spots, but thats just an awful board to bluff.
Oh and btw, A+ videos!
I can rep a lot more 2 pr hands to be honest, and his value betting range on the turn becomes 2 pr + (or an ace I guess) in the first scenario. In the second scenario, I just felt he wasn't bluffing, and was more prone to calling down lighter given the fact that I did raise the first time.
I'm not sure that raising turn again would make the hand more likely to play. It would just be another level thing. |
|
| MYNAMEIZGREG |
hey greg, watched the videos some days ago and it is superb, lately i'm playng hu 50nl and i'm crushing people nearly without 3-betting lately becouse against most players seems like i don't need to do that becouse
1) they open sooo tight from the sb and play weak thight passive when on bb
2) some miniraise pf and play really bad/passive post flop
3) when i rarely 3-bet i lead many flops oop and it seems to work well
4) often they don't rebuy after losing so we play short..
do you think can be optimal to rarely 3-bet against these opponents? (they remembered me somehow how you owned this guy on the video nearly without 3 betting)
It sounds reasonable against the opponents that you described. To be completely honest, there are situations/opponents that I would rarely 3bet bluff with (or try to create 3bet pots OOP) because my style vs. them just kills them low-variance style in raised pots. I can grind them down that way (this is especially true/important vs. opponents that don't rebuy but leave if they hit x bb) and can reduce variance significantly without giving up much/any overall EV. |
|
| jmc1972 |
pretty good
|
|
| krmont22 |
Why do you bluff raise on the KcQxJcTc3c board? Do you really check behind the Ac on the turn? and more importantly I guess do you think he thinks you would? I guess if I was in opponents shoes, I would never fold the Qc or 9c on this river since you likely dont have the Ac imo and doubtfully raise the Qc if I had the 9c. Also if you think he's bluffing a lot, so you can profitable rebluff, wouldn't just calling with ass end of the straight be more profitable?
I fold the J5 since I think he snap quits you if he wins and he seems pretty exploitable so far and you have folded to his overbet shoves every time but with AA, so I think he would expect you to be looking for a spot to look him up pretty soon. |
|
| MYNAMEIZGREG |
Why do you bluff raise on the KcQxJcTc3c board? Do you really check behind the Ac on the turn? and more importantly I guess do you think he thinks you would? I guess if I was in opponents shoes, I would never fold the Qc or 9c on this river since you likely dont have the Ac imo and doubtfully raise the Qc if I had the 9c. Also if you think he's bluffing a lot, so you can profitable rebluff, wouldn't just calling with ass end of the straight be more profitable?
I fold the J5 since I think he snap quits you if he wins and he seems pretty exploitable so far and you have folded to his overbet shoves every time but with AA, so I think he would expect you to be looking for a spot to look him up pretty soon.
I think checking behind the Ac on the turn is a completely reasonable play (we don't want to get c/r-ed being deep, and we have a freeroll some % of the time), but that's not the primary reason why I bluffraised.
I think villain would almost always fire the turn with a flush, but especially in this situation because it could potentially trap my Ax. Additionally, I expected him to check a bare ace on the turn.
I also expect him to rarely have the Ac himself when he checks the turn because he won't check/raise AQ,AJ, A2-A9 type hands on this flop (he either doesn't have them in his range or would c/c). So, that leaves suited aces in his range (which made flushes on the turn and I expect him to bet with flushes) or AT, AK. AK is heavily discounted due to preflop and flop action, and AcTx doesn't come around that often compared to all the other hands in his range.
EDIT: Addressing Qc and 9c, those are two cards that he can have, and he kind of needs to randomly have them given the flop texture. So they are rarer as well. |
|
| krmont22 |
So if you don't think he has Ac Qc 9c that often, do you think he is bet/folding smaller clubs or broadway? I guess I just don't get why not just calling is not better than bluff raising. |
|
| MYNAMEIZGREG |
So if you don't think he has Ac Qc 9c that often, do you think he is bet/folding smaller clubs or broadway? I guess I just don't get why not just calling is not better than bluff raising.
The reality is I'm not sure how thin his value betting range is on the river, so by raising I'm playing it "better safe than sorry," since I can deduce he so rarely has the top of his range. |
|
| snakekilla88 |
The KQ hand by him was definitely one hell of a merge that you will rarely see. Clearly he is not your standard 5/10 grinder and will have higher bluffing frequencies in spots that most people rarely ever bluff so I kind of want to call. Bottom line this decision is really hard even after watching both videos and you can make cases for both.
So far this has been my favorite video series. Lately I have been running kind of bad and been on autopilot HU so its good to see you think hard about a lot of these situations. I also owned piejay right after watching this. |
|
| MYNAMEIZGREG |
James I would stay the **** away from Piejay :D.
If there is one single person who I am scared ****less to play but know I'm so much better than it's him ;). |
|
| Isura |
I loved this series. More 25/50 Greggy! |
|
| yekn0d |
just watched this for the first time, very nice series.
Last hand is tough but i think i would call because:
1) your range obviously consists of mostly weakish one pair hands (except the occasional slowplay)
2) and i think he can expect you to fold those since he saw you tank with AA in a similar spot (eventhough board was more dangerous) so he cant really think of you as a callbox (also no huge calldowns recently) and he had shown down a not polarized range in this kinda spot. Also AQ hand happend recently where he potted twice and again had TPTK so i think he really has every reason to believe you can fold most of your range.
3) it seemed like he liked leading with air/weak on dry boards. You realized early him lead/folding dry ace high boards and i think i remember him leading several times on 1)monotone and 2)really dry boards (to which J52r certainly qualifies) which obviously from a exploitative viewpoint makes lots of sense since your opponent rarely is comfortable calling several pot bets on these kinda boards
so i think i would call river and expect him to show up with just two random cards often enough.
Btw are there results to the last hand somewhere? |
|
 |
