Very interesting analysis, thanks a lot! Good to see I played atleast the flop well.
Pre flop I thought even though K9o is not very strong, I thought it would def dominate his limping range.
Flop u thought the same
Turn, plan was to c/f, but with this betsizing I felt like Tx was a big part of his range, and when I did hit my flush, I could bet to let him call Tx.
River, I also thought ''only QT beats me, nothing else''. AT raises pre, pair raises pre, etc. But than I started to level myself, prob also because I was running bad. ''I only need to win like 20% of the time. Would he not raise QT pre flop?'' Jokes like that. Obv he did have QT, the mofo.
@Rika: What is your guess how often we are beat here? I mean, he has to win 80% of the time, and there is always something like a spazzfactor.
Very interesting analysis, thanks a lot! Good to see I played atleast the flop well.
Pre flop I thought even though K9o is not very strong, I thought it would def dominate his limping range.
Flop u thought the same
Turn, plan was to c/f, but with this betsizing I felt like Tx was a big part of his range, and when I did hit my flush, I could bet to let him call Tx.
River, I also thought ''only QT beats me, nothing else''. AT raises pre, pair raises pre, etc. But than I started to level myself, prob also because I was running bad. ''I only need to win like 20% of the time. Would he not raise QT pre flop?'' Jokes like that. Obv he did have QT, the mofo.
@Rika: What is your guess how often we are beat here? I mean, he has to win 80% of the time, and there is always something like a spazzfactor.
Pre: Like I mentioned in the video. It is very close for me because I do raise KTo and K9s...so raising K9o isn't a "mistake" imo, but I personally prefer just checking. If it was something like K7o, then it's a clear check and would be a mistake to raise imo.
Flop: We agree ;)
Turn: Half pot is a "normal" bet size, so we can't read too much into it. Like I mentioned, if it was a super small bet like $2, I probably call too...but half pot = must fold.
The problem is, if he always has a flush/Ax/Tx on the turn, then we have anywhere from 9-7 outs, and sometimes (like when he has Tx) we actually might "hit and still lose." Add in to the fact we're oop so it's more difficult to get paid off, and we'll only hit 18-14% of the time, makes it a clear fold getting only 3 to 1 imo.
River: Love the donk for the reasons I mentioned. But I still think the river is a clear fold. I know we don't have to be right that often, but the fact it was a snap raise (meaning easy decision for him, and because bluffing is a tough decision, makes me think it's always value) and the fact it's a 4 flush board, and the fact he seems like a "passive player"...and passive players rarely bluff raise the river.
If I had to put a % on how often we're good...I'd put it at 5-10%. (misclicks, spazzes etc.)
