Drew continues his play on 4 tables of $50 NL 6-Max on LockPoker while discussing gathering individual reads, not auto piloting and playing against lags. He later wraps up the video by breaking down a hand using CardrunnersEV.
5 min ~ Table 1 you flat 99 BU vs MP. Flop comes KKTss, villain cbet u call. Don't u think that his MP range is gonna connect a bit to much with this board to call? Any gutshot, openender, flushdraw he could easily bet turn again with and u have to fold? To me, calling just don't really seem good in these positions on this board. What do u think about it? How much would it change if it was KTxss instead of KKTss
The key assumption here is that he bets the flop with 100% of his range, but I think that is a very reasonable assumption, even at these stakes. That leaves him with a ton of Axs and 88-22 which simply c/f the turn. Even in the worst case scenario where he barrels every single one of his gutshots and FDs on, say, a 2d turn, and we fold, our flop call is roughly break even since nearly half his range on the turn is Axs/88-.
However, I think this sim is slightly flawed for two reasons. First, I don't think that people barrel 100% of their gutshots on the turn. If he has AQ or AJ there is a reasonable chance he just checks it on the turn since our flop calling range is perceived to be relatively strong, and he might think he can't get us to fold any better hands. So, in reality, we realize more of our equity vs. those hands than this sim accounts for.
Second, the checkdown branch has us realizing 100% of our equity between the turn and showdown (i.e. we both check down 100% of the time), but I think we will actually end up realizing a little more than that. It's small, but some of the time we spike a 9 and get paid off by a ten (I assumed that he checks Tx on the turn and bets JJ+, BTW), and some of the time we fold him off the better hand. As the hand played out in the video, I think we actually have a very profitable bet/bet and get him off many better hands. Of course, the turn won't always come as palatable as it did in the video, and us hitting a 9 AND being paid off by a ten is a relatively minor occurrence, but they both count and help towards making the flop call slightly +EV.
I think we'll end up making a couple big blinds by calling the flop, but it is kinda close - even 77 is probably a very easy fold.
Note that if we assume he has a tighter opening range from that position or develops a checking range, calling the flop is certainly -EV.
edit: also it's a small point but when he bets $2.50 I think his range is weighted slightly more towards air wanting to give itself a cheap price on a bluff rather than a strong value hand. the latter usually bets like $3 in my experience.
I'm wondering if the river on 33 might be a call (as played) based on how polarized his bet is on this board given this type of player. I think this type of player checks back all his pairs under a 10 otr and basically only bets his 10x hands for value. A lot of these fish seem to call down with draws and Ace high and bomb the river once they miss and are checked to.
Having said that, I probably check fold the turn like you suggested.