Dan goes over every hand where he won or lost at least 10bbs, taking under two minutes to evaluate each hand. Highlights include lots of controlled aggression, and The Fold Of The Century. The importance of balance to deceive our opponents is a common theme.
At 31.00 I would think the chance villain is bluffing and the small chance he could be vbetting/blockbetting worse (KJ, K9, Tx) and his small sizing (we need 26%) and the info we get from his range and bet sizing makes this a call. Also we check back the flop which surely increases his thin valuebetting and bluffing frequencies.
Btw on the top left corner of the replayer you can see the pot odds percentage so you don't have to calculate it yourself. Very nice vid and good fold with the 66!
I know you have position, but on the other hand this plays seem to me really weak-ish. Maybe I'm just influenced by aejones's "huh, I cbet to fold out his JTs or w/e" when he has to deal with somebody's flat 4bet IP...
At 31.00 I would think the chance villain is bluffing and the small chance he could be vbetting/blockbetting worse (KJ, K9, Tx) and his small sizing (we need 26%) and the info we get from his range and bet sizing makes this a call. Also we check back the flop which surely increases his thin valuebetting and bluffing frequencies.
Btw on the top left corner of the replayer you can see the pot odds percentage so you don't have to calculate it yourself. Very nice vid and good fold with the 66!
Yeah it's very close. 26% isn't very much, and I don't expect to see a lot of value betted 1 pair Aces. Within a margin of error to being both a fold and call in a vacuum, the information we get probably makes it a call.
nice vid, thx:)
Thanks
Hey^^
Just started to watch the vid, so have not yet question on the vid.
Though at the 2nd hand (A5o):
What would you do vs. a turnbet?
But one other questions in front of:
Any special reason why you play seemingly atm mostly at PS.fr?
Thought you wanted to make SNE at PS.con last year...?
I'll never make SNE. My brain or the way I play or the way I think about poker is incompatible of playing more than 6 tables. In fact I think my 9+ winrate is negative, and I've played a lot of hands that way! So anyway I play at .FR because although there are less tables, the games are softer. The rake is much higher though, and it takes a while to get Supernova back, so it's all swings and roundabouts.
As for the hand, the likelihood of my calling a turn lead is directly proportional to his betsize. 75% pot = 100% folding frequency, 25% pot = 100% calling frequency. The PSR being what it is (massively in his favour here when we hold a reverse implied odds type hand) mean we make huge mistakes calling a decent size turn lead here.
Is your calling 4bets IP proffitable?
Yes, albeit only 130 instances this year. From the point at which we face the 4bet, I'm making a decent amount per hand.
I know you have position, but on the other hand this plays seem to me really weak-ish. Maybe I'm just influenced by aejones's "huh, I cbet to fold out his JTs or w/e" when he has to deal with somebody's flat 4bet IP...
Yeah but Aaron's talking about playing some guy who probably didn't intend to 3bet and then flat the 4bet. Rather he 3bet some junk, faced one of Aarons min4bets and thought fuck it A2s plays ok, with no plan and no experience. The way I approach it is that I'm tailoring my 3bet/5bet 3bet/flat 3bet/fold range to suit opponent tendencies/ opponent 4betting range/ stacksizes etc.
There's a Galfond vid that covers this. Essentially, say we 3bet 75s and face a 4bet, then IP VS a strong range of AK, AQ, JJ+, we have enough equity to flat the 4bet. For us not flat the 4bet, then rationally we must be saying that we are at a postflop disadvantage.
All I'm saying is that I don't think so long as you plan enough and know what you're doing, we are at a postflop disadvantage, especially IP with a disguised range with a stronger hand than 75s VS a weaker 4betting range than just nuts.
Min. 13 (AJo):
Kinda interesting that you do not have it in this spot in your coldcall-range b/c you have such a high cc BTN_Stat – higher than most REGs at NL200… - has your style mb changed here a bit playing now on PS.fr (though cannot see any significant enough reason for it)?
Min. 15 – KQ:
Why so concerned with balance-issues vs. a fishy player?:)
Min.42: (QQ):
What you would hence do with a hands like 98 vs. his turnbetsize? Jam o fold?
Min. 53 – AQs:
Sure your line is +ev, but imo a turn_X/C is in this spot even better than a X/Jam.
The thing is that on this board, if you also X/C OTT, then your perceived range will be imo very TP+_heavy -> hence Villain should have his Bluffinflectionpoint with all his bluffcombos (you mentioned) which you are beating pretty often OTR…
Min. 13 (AJo):
Kinda interesting that you do not have it in this spot in your coldcall-range b/c you have such a high cc BTN_Stat – higher than most REGs at NL200… - has your style mb changed here a bit playing now on PS.fr (though cannot see any significant enough reason for it)?
Hmm I don't want to discuss my exact default ranges here. Since you asked though I'll pm you.
Min. 15 – KQ:
Why so concerned with balance-issues vs. a fishy player?:)
Being concerned with balance is just a tremendous habit to be in. He is fishy, but we can't make any assumptions as to his increased calling/ folding, bluffing/ passive tendencies one way or another. So in a spot where we know a player to be bad, but we don't know in what sense bad, reverting to GTO keeps us in line, is stops huge situational mistakes, and is definitely going to make us money. It also keeps us aware of our perceived range, and even fishes can somewhat read hands these days.
Min.42: (QQ):
What you would hence do with a hands like 98 vs. his turnbetsize? Jam o fold?
Yeah kinda a sick spot. Sucks to throw in an extra 50bbs in a spot where they disappear whenever we're called. 98 is close. Hmm. Probably fold. Jam J9 though.
Min. 53 – AQs:
Sure your line is +ev, but imo a turn_X/C is in this spot even better than a X/Jam.
The thing is that on this board, if you also X/C OTT, then your perceived range will be imo very TP+_heavy -> hence Villain should have his Bluffinflectionpoint with all his bluffcombos (you mentioned) which you are beating pretty often OTR…
Yeah sure, river inflection points are a cool thing and mostly true. We'd need only like 25% to call river though and so in a spot like that we're usually left calling again. Jamming has a the benefit of folding out AK, A4, A3 type hands....... but if the PSR were slightly bigger and not leaving so little behind on the river then I agree that CC > check shove.
hey,
thanks for the detailed response:)
I also like your approach in general regards to balance in spots with too little infos in a situation X to exploit anything (by widening our folding;calling - or raisingranges..), what is obv. also applicable vs every player, so also vs. recreational players - so a kinda dumb comment there by me^^
agree with all,
only shortly @ the AQs-hand:
If you call there OTT, there would be a little more left OTR than half PS (you would need there ~29% EQ to call it off).
Here i think it is in this spot possible to X/C OTT and X/F OTR - but it is close.
If the turn would have been for instance a King, all my logic regards to the perceived Inflectionpoints would be off and i would of course jam OTT all day long...
