Great video, and love the ranges you give us in the different scenarios that the shortstacker open.
I'm a little confused about the shove over his cbet move on the bad turn card K example. You say we should do it with a hand like TT, so are we doing it as value or as a bluff? You say he will fold so often due to so much air, so do we only raise to protect our equity? To fold out his air we beat anyway? And that he sometimes will even call with a worse hand, then he will definately call with better hands? So we basically turn our TT into a bluff vs a air heavy range?
26:55 I don't agree with moving allin with hero's entire range on the turn. I don't agree with the ratios you give villain. I think he c-bets this particular board 100%, but he doesn't barrel a 7s turn 50% either. Even if he does barrel the turn 50% he's going to have top pair or better half the time he barrels the turn. Hero jamming his entire range doesn't work out so well since he's risking 32.67 to win 25.66.
I also agree with kareem that I'd rather flat turn with a hand like TT instead of jam and just jam good hands and lots of bluffs if I did decide to go that route.
On a side note I think in some spots where a 3-bet is +ev that calling is even more +ev, but that's pretty minor.
Great video, and love the ranges you give us in the different scenarios that the shortstacker open.
I'm a little confused about the shove over his cbet move on the bad turn card K example. You say we should do it with a hand like TT, so are we doing it as value or as a bluff? You say he will fold so often due to so much air, so do we only raise to protect our equity? To fold out his air we beat anyway? And that he sometimes will even call with a worse hand, then he will definately call with better hands? So we basically turn our TT into a bluff vs a air heavy range?
Maybe I'm missunderstanding something=)
This is an excellent question! I have a view that is very different from most people here, so I will explain it in detail. But I should preface it by saying that most good players would not agree with what I am about to say so be aware of that and you might want to disregard this advice! :)
Let's say for instance that you decide to call down on that king turn card. The more widely accepted view is that it is much better to call turn and call river than it it is to jam the turn. If you take this line you will still get stacked by his strong hands but you will possibly induce river bluffs from his air.
Since in both cases strong hands are going to stack you let's assume that you do equally well with either strategy versus a strong hand. The strategies should only perform differently if your opponent has an air hand. So let's say he raises to 3 BB preflop, bets 4 BB on the flop and 8 BB on the turn. Now if you call this bet 25 BB remains for the river bet.
If you raise the turn and he has air which he folds you win 23.5 BB - 1.56 BB rake for a profit of 21.94BB.
If you just call the turn then there are 3 ways the hand can play out:
(A)He outdraws you on the river and you lose 21.94 BB plus your last 33 BB for a total of 54.94 BB.
(B)He does not outdraw you on the river but he gives up and does not try to bluff. You win 21.94 BB.
(C)He tries to bluff the river and you win the 25 BB he bluffs on the river minus the 2.5 BB in additional rake for a total of 22.5 BB.
We can ignore case (B) since it produces no different results than jamming the turn would have. Only (A) and (C) produce a different result. So in a sense by calling the turn you are risking an outdraw which would cost you 54.94 BB to induce a bluff which would win you 22.5 BB. So for calling to be more profitable you would have to induce 54.94/22.5 = 2.44 bluffs for every drawout that you suffer.
Overall your opponent is going to outdraw you on the river around 10% of the time if he has air. So for inducing a bluff to be more profitable here he has to bluff around 24.5/90 = 27.2% of the time with his missed air. In my experience most people at Micro Stakes only bet around 10-20% of the time with their missed air on the river with this type of board. After all they see there are no draws and that you have already put in around half your stack so they usually just assume that you are going to go for the rest even if it is just a crying call.
As I said earlier I haven't yet been able to convince any good players that I am right about this and they use various counterarguments such as that I am underestimating the probability that my opponents will bluff the river with missed air. These guys however all play higher stakes games than I do so their games play more aggressively and as a result they are used to seeing higher bluff frequencies. In Micro Stakes, I am pretty convinced that the bluff frequencies are very low in this spot.
Another counterargument is that I could well be wrong in assuming that the hand will play out the same way if the opponent holds a better hand on the turn (a related counterargument says that he may not bet the river if he outdraws you with a weak hit like pairing a jack in his hand). This argument would state that if the opponent holds QQ or JJ and we just call the turn bet then the river might go check/check, or even if he has KQ the river might go check/check if a scary card like an ace comes. It is not, however, so clear which way this argument cuts. Undoubtedly there is some chance the opponent would check QQ or JJ on the river (although probably not too high). There is also, however, some chance that our turn raise will induce a fold from better. If our opponent bets QQ or JJ on the turn or even KJ or KQ how good does he really feel if he gets raised? If we play like most people we are going to be nutted just about every time and there is no way he can feel good about making the call. He has no idea that we are actually open to the idea of jamming a hand like TT and turning it into a bluff, and that may cause him to get confused and make some incorrect folds which would result in huge profit for us.
Nevertheless, this isn't a point I feel super strongly about-if someone wanted to just call the turn and call the river I would have no beef with that line, but I personally usually just jam this turn in this spot.
26:55 I don't agree with moving allin with hero's entire range on the turn. I don't agree with the ratios you give villain. I think he c-bets this particular board 100%, but he doesn't barrel a 7s turn 50% either. Even if he does barrel the turn 50% he's going to have top pair or better half the time he barrels the turn. Hero jamming his entire range doesn't work out so well since he's risking 32.67 to win 25.66.
You are right-I made a miscalculation here!
In the example I used I had him betting 3 BB pre, 4 BB on the flop, and 8 BB on the turn. So if you jammed all in on the turn you would be risking 33 BB to win 21.94 BB and you would need 14.5% equity to show a profit. The miscacluation I think I made was assuming your 8 BB call on the turn was already in the pot and that you were just betting your last 25 BB to win a pot of 21.94 BB which led me to the conculsion that you could jam with something ridiculously small like 5% equity.
In the video it is still demonstrated how jamming the turn would show a profit and those numbers are still correct, but overall your idea of just calling the turn in this spot is definitely better. He is never folding an overpair JJ+ when you raise, so there is no hope of ever getting him to fold a better hand if you jam something like 88 or TT. And if he bets the river I think it is really safe to fold-you will only be getting bluffed out once in a blue moon and this strategy will show a higher profit than the line in the video. I caclulated the profit of this line assuming he bluffs around 20% of his air on the river and it was $1.17 per hand as opposed to the $0.71 per hand in the video versus a 50% double barreler.
