Good vid. KJ hand, if you raise the flop and he jams, do you have to call?
I'm guessing he'd have to have AA, AK, KK (very unlikely), KQ, and maybe KJ or a flush draw. Can't see him jamming anything else.
It would definitely be to call. Essentially they are making the raise to induce action so it's pretty tough to fold when you get some.
I don't love the idea of raising the KJo hand. I like it with the right read but dougie said this guy was a solid tough regular. You're right that you can't have AA, KK, or AK or much of anything on this flop and I would expect a tough regular to fire multiple barrels quite often because of it. Given how many weaker hands we're going to have when we peel this flop I think it's pretty important to be calling when you actually have a king.
I also think the whole 'no heart' thing is just being greedy on this texture. It matters more on gutshot heavy boards if you ask me.
Without a solid read I would also feel pretty good about shoving the river when he checks if the ranges you assigned are correct. You mentioned that you would fold 88 on the turn because he would probably value bet 99+. If that's the case then his river check looks like a lot of potential bluff-catchers to me. Most people bet their bluffs and made hands on this river.
I really think overshoving 78cc is great in that spot. I expect to get called only by QQ, AQ, AA and some strong Qx hands maybe. Villian will think we have 22, 44 or AQ like always. You can get away with so much stuff deepstacked because a lot of players are not in their comfort zone deep. I would like a click it back with kj. People don't give you much respect in general at paired boards. You get called so light in this spot and you might induce something. I have seen players calling me down with A high at the same board.
I have a question concerning the 78s hand: If he never c/f turn and you know it, does it kinda make it more likely for you to c back Ax and rather bluff bet turn with a hand such as yours? I f he thinks that you'd c back Turn with, lets say, AT, does it make the A river not that great a card to bluff?
It seems really bad to me to check the river on the first hand.
1) We've been bluffing partly because we have implied odds. We would never play 86s oop without implied odds, or barrel the turn. It's pretty imperative to me that we realize those odds when we make our hand. We don't have to shove necessarily.
2) The only hands that we're sure will fold are missed flush draws. Any ace (he may or may not bet for us), probably any overpair (not everyone is as good as you guys), any 5. Even if he's not calling with an overpair, it's pretty unlikely that he's going to bet with one here.
whiplashchild, its unreasonable to expect someone to never cf turn in this spot. that being said once he calls and has a range primarily filled with bluffcatchers i think overbetting should be considered given the polarized nature of our range. the issue becomes how heavily weighted towards bluffs we would be if we went for it every time though i imagine if you really wanted to figure it out you could break down a range for him and for you and decide the size and frequency in which youd want to bet.
unluckycruncy, i actually don't think implied odds are the reason we play 86s oop. in this case we have a hand that has good potential to flop draws and provide us with equity when barreling. it's also too weak to call but quite reasonable to play aggressively as part of a bluff range with deeper stacks.
you may be right that river is a bet against most players but the stipulations you've outlined in #2 are what would weight it in one direction or the other. if he bets an ace you should check and if he doesn't you should bet and check call with weaker hands because his bluff range will be very heavy without the ability to value bet the wheel. its a fairly cyclical progression of exploitation until both people decide to play optimally according to whatever ranges and frequencies are in order to make calling and folding both neutral, or playing in accordance with a GTO strategy.