finally a good vid at leggo - hope it will be a multiple parter...^^
First of all:
@D2themfi: can you tell something bout you upcoming site?
min. 9.30 (J6s):
You have wondered what villain should valuejam at worst on the river.
First you both thought that AT shpuld be his worst valuejamming_hand.
But then you figured that actually the boardrunout smashes both perceived ranges in a direction, that he should valuejam tighter.
What would be then finally your worst valuejamminghand on the river in his shoes?
I am rly so far off, when I say boats+?
finally a good vid at leggo - hope it will be a multiple parter...^^
First of all:
@D2themfi: can you tell something bout you upcoming site?
Yes- firstly it is wtflop.com (what the flop). The service we will provide will be written and visual (graphic) mathematical analysis, using Cardrunners EV software. The analysis will be geared towards helping guys who play SSNL and MSNL the most, and I think some HSNL guys who don't do their own analysis already will see plenty of value in it as well. The analysis we do will be mostly exploitative in nature (and we will vary opponent strategies over a wide range of values) but we will mix in occasional analysis that touches on game theory and/or balance. I'm going to pm you a few more details, and I'll leave it at that here. If anyone has any questions about wtflop.com it's probably best to pm me.
Thanks for the compliment on the video as well guys. In the 2nd part we will have an interesting math analysis of the A5cc hand to start the video, and then we are going to review some hands I played from a 4 table match this year on stars.
min. 9.30 (J6s):
You have wondered what villain should valuejam at worst on the river.
First you both thought that AT shpuld be his worst valuejamming_hand.
But then you figured that actually the boardrunout smashes both perceived ranges in a direction, that he should valuejam tighter.
What would be then finally your worst valuejamminghand on the river in his shoes?
I am rly so far off, when I say boats+?
Yea-slightly confusing. When I asked, what I really meant was, "what hand do you think villain would (not should) shove river with". I think the discussion on AT is a bit irrelevant because that is maybe the most likely value hand for villain to 3bet the flop with. It is too thin to shove river with though. think QJ is ok to shove because big blind can very often have J7s or 67s along with AT, QT, JT, T7s, and iirc there's not much money left on the river
Yes- firstly it is wtflop.com (what the flop). The service we will provide will be written and visual (graphic) mathematical analysis, using Cardrunners EV software. The analysis will be geared towards helping guys who play SSNL and MSNL the most, and I think some HSNL guys who don't do their own analysis already will see plenty of value in it as well. The analysis we do will be mostly exploitative in nature (and we will vary opponent strategies over a wide range of values) but we will mix in occasional analysis that touches on game theory and/or balance. I'm going to pm you a few more details, and I'll leave it at that here. If anyone has any questions about wtflop.com it's probably best to pm me.
Thanks for the compliment on the video as well guys. In the 2nd part we will have an interesting math analysis of the A5cc hand to start the video, and then we are going to review some hands I played from a 4 table match this year on stars.
Yea-slightly confusing. When I asked, what I really meant was, "what hand do you think villain would (not should) shove river with". I think the discussion on AT is a bit irrelevant because that is maybe the most likely value hand for villain to 3bet the flop with. It is too thin to shove river with though. think QJ is ok to shove because big blind can very often have J7s or 67s along with AT, QT, JT, T7s, and iirc there's not much money left on the river
Great. thx for answering me and for the will to pm me bout your upcoming site.
Rly interested in it^^
What is the name of the stat in PT4 that you guys were talking about that tells you how frequently opponent's reverse float flop and bluff river? Also ... I could figure this out enough on my own with experience, but I might as well ask ... how do you interpret the percentages? Meaning -- what range of numbers do you consider high versus what range do you consider low? -- obv it's board dependent, but just a rough estimate is all I'm looking for.
What is the name of the stat in PT4 that you guys were talking about that tells you how frequently opponent's reverse float flop and bluff river? Also ... I could figure this out enough on my own with experience, but I might as well ask ... how do you interpret the percentages? Meaning -- what range of numbers do you consider high versus what range do you consider low? -- obv it's board dependent, but just a rough estimate is all I'm looking for.
I'm not in front of pt4 right now, however I believe that "probe bet" refers to a float and a bet on the next street after a missed cbet when OOP, and a "float" is when you bet IP (like in a 3bet pot) after a missed cbet
In terms of numbers it's a very general thing- what I'm mostly looking for are numbers that are very high or low over decently large samples, or for an overall trend in someone's stats that point to him generally being light (can mean too bluff heavy, too light for value or both) or very tight in most situations which I would then combine with any empirical evidence from showdown hands to form an approximation of the range of strategies I think he is most likely using.
Arbitrary example: If for some stat he is betting 60% of the time and you think that is 5-10% higher than it should be if he was well balanced, that almost always is basically worthless in terms of how it affects your strategy, because, 1. Sample size will probably not be significant, either because it is small, or when it is large, enough hands have passed where he may be altering his strategy already to a perceived or real adjustment by you. 2. Your perception of what is correct may be far from optimal. 3. Probably other stuff my over tired brain can't think of right now
* #1&2 assume a good opponent. A bad regular may be playing a strategy that is both fairly static and bad, in which case the specific stat can be of great use over a large sample, and of some use using Bayesian inference over smaller samples
Generally you want to use these post flop stats generally, cautiously and in conjunction with what you notice consciously and what your intuition is telling you.
If you are modeling a situation away from the table you can also use his specific stat % as a guide for what types of ranges to assign villain in the model (again with the option to use his other stats and showdown hands as context especially with a smaller sample for the stat you are using).
Min 37 - Q5o:
Agree with all your thoughts, but would have preferred to jam the turn b/c in our perceived turncallrange are some weaker hands as well so that villain will gonna continue bluffing in some %...
