From seeing the hand in the video preview I'd generally fold preflop. In general, unless there is a specific reason to believe otherwise, I like to follow Allen Cunningham's approach to fold trash hands 100% of the time (ie bottom 10-15% of hands). I will raise them sometimes of course (although supposedly Allen never does, but I think this is going too far as there are certain bubble spots where it should be automatic against some opponents), but in this case it doesn't seem warranted, as you are basically admitting by raising 53o that you will raise virtually 100% of hands here, which isn't necessarily ideal.
On the flop I'd 3 bet some pot committing amount and get it all in. If the guy has a jack congrats to him and we have a bunch of outs, otherwise he's probably going to fold a very significant percentage of the time. It's also unlikely he has anything stronger than one pair. I believe this is the most clear cut decision of the hand for me and I believe that calling is a mistake.
On the turn a call seems reasonable as it represents a 4 a decent % of the time, so at least a random bet on the river makes sense, and the guy is less likely to call with something like ace hi. Also we have a decent number of outs. On the river I agree that you should move allin and hope for the best.
The pot is gigantic and while the guy is going to have a calling hand a good % of the time, I believe the chances of him folding are significant enough to warrant an allin. It's quite reasonable that he just decided to fuck with you in a blind battle, and it's also reasonable that he may make a relatively big fold in this spot to keep himself with 100k chips.
After listening to the video Tony, why would we say the following:
1. Flat calling the flop is normal
2. Our opponent probably doesn't have anything
We have 5 high, seems to me that if we think they don't have anything a large frequency of the time it's a really easy raise, and it's usually not that big a deal if we are behind (ie we are like 35% or so against a jack).
I'm happy to win the hand right away, not so greedy to try to induce one more small bluff with 5 high in an already very large pot.
I'm okay with folding some garbage hands on the button, but I think I still give 53o a raise. Conversely, I usually fold 92o. Do you think the high card has more value than the connectivity button vs BB?
I don't mind 3-betting the flop. I just think it doesn't represent very many value hands from us. Then again, it still requires a random in a $50 to figure that out, and it's going to be cheaper than trying to bluff over the turn.
I guess I just want to call the flop because I think it really does make our hand look strong (I mean, how often are we floating the flop checkraise to bluff with something that has no equity? And how many draws are there here with any real equity?) and that he's bluffing frequently, but also that he'll probably fire once more on most turns and that we get another bet from him before we make our bluff.
It's definitely the higher risk route to take--and if you think you can just punk a soft tournament with a stack then just 3-bet the flop--but I really believe people only rarely checkraise J64r out of the BB for value against a button raiser.
I'm okay with folding some garbage hands on the button, but I think I still give 53o a raise. Conversely, I usually fold 92o. Do you think the high card has more value than the connectivity button vs BB?
I don't mind 3-betting the flop. I just think it doesn't represent very many value hands from us. Then again, it still requires a random in a $50 to figure that out, and it's going to be cheaper than trying to bluff over the turn.
I guess I just want to call the flop because I think it really does make our hand look strong (I mean, how often are we floating the flop checkraise to bluff with something that has no equity? And how many draws are there here with any real equity?) and that he's bluffing frequently, but also that he'll probably fire once more on most turns and that we get another bet from him before we make our bluff.
It's definitely the higher risk route to take--and if you think you can just punk a soft tournament with a stack then just 3-bet the flop--but I really believe people only rarely checkraise J64r out of the BB for value against a button raiser.
Preflop it's obv not a huge deal, I would probably just fold because it's 53o. Sometimes I will raise any 2, and yes 53o is better than 92o, but 53o is still one of the worst hands we can have :)
On the flop if we think the guy's has nothing and is going to fold a large % of the time I'm going allin. Even if the guy makes some hero call, it's not that big a deal because we have solid equity. I think that worrying about anything past that is thinking on too many levels. If we think he will fold a large % and we are sitting there with 5 high in an already gigantic pot, we should just do what will make him fold so often.
Also there is a trouble with the logic of: "It makes our hand look very strong/ he will probably fire another bullet on the turn and then we get one more bet with our bluff". If our hand looks so strong you probably can't count on him to be betting again, so you can't really have it both ways :)
Anyway I'm happy to just take it down now, the pot is humungous (we have 120k or so after the flop call and the pot contains 81k....that's a 66% stack increase and a 33% increase from the start of the hand). No need to be greedy and string a guy along with 5 high in an already huge pot, especially in a tournament where our last chips (ie the risk we take that he catches something and beats us when he would have otherwise folded) are worth so much more than the extra we will win from another potential bet.
