at ~ 30:00 we 3 bet 45s and c bet 246r, then decide to XRAI turn T.
if we think villain is floating a decent % of the time shouldn't we just be check calling the turn and then check deciding the river (even though this will be difficult)?
in order for XR turn to be the best play are we assuming villain bet folds better hands here like 88,99,JJ which seems bad and unlikely if he is decent?
at ~ 30:00 we 3 bet 45s and c bet 246r, then decide to XRAI turn T.
if we think villain is floating a decent % of the time shouldn't we just be check calling the turn and then check deciding the river (even though this will be difficult)?
in order for XR turn to be the best play are we assuming villain bet folds better hands here like 88,99,JJ which seems bad and unlikely if he is decent?
This is a good question and I'm glad you asked it.
We are actually treating our hand as a semibluff in this situation. Basically, we made the decision that semibluffing the turn has a higher ev compared to treating our hand as a bluffcatcher with the bonus of some chance to improve if we are actually behind.
There are a few reasons for this decision: our hand is a pair of fives and means that all overcards/random hands have equity against us. Consequently, rivers are difficult to play because we don't know what his tendency will be if he hits or misses. Also, it sets up a nice little metagame where we can introduce a turn c/r range for value because he is now bet/calling wider (or where checking allows us to see free rivers more often).
The 3bet pot with AJo near the end of the video where you decide that raising to ~1500 on the T986r board is best vs the 674 bet. If you made that raise and he jams, I assume you are calling it off with that much in the pot and about 1600 behind? Also, if he flats the turn and river bricks off, what would your plan be when checked to? Thanks!
thanks a lot for all efforts you put in this series!
I've got my usual questions ready:
At 18 minutes an interesting spot comes up when Prittaygood opens on the CO, 200bb deep effective stacks. The Button (utter milked) 3bets, we get dealt JJ on the BB. Btn 3bets small and has been active before.
What are your thoughts on your 4bet range here? Flatting can't be a mistake obviously, but how does your 4bet range look here? what air: value ratio and which hands would you 4bet for value?
~40 mins
You valuebet TPGK at the J8T 3 7 board. To me it really looks like you're valuebetting a 2p+ hand or the obvious straight. because If we had air or wanted to take the pot down, we'd bet either flop or turn. After he has checked backed twice, I wonder if he ever looks you up with a worse hand. Are you not affraid 1) the river improved his range pretty well. 2) he decides to turn a one pair / medium hand into a bluff because we can't really have too many 9's ?
~49 mins
The AJ hand. Why do you prefer a turn raise over a flop raise? On the flop you could click it back and rep quite a strong hand, your real hand would be disguised. It seems to work a lot better with your position, you could have a balanced turn checking back range. Plus.. you anticipate a big turn bet if you just call (200$) on the flop. The main disadvantage is what to do when he reraises your CiB. But that's a problem on the turn as well.
The 3bet pot with AJo near the end of the video where you decide that raising to ~1500 on the T986r board is best vs the 674 bet. If you made that raise and he jams, I assume you are calling it off with that much in the pot and about 1600 behind? Also, if he flats the turn and river bricks off, what would your plan be when checked to? Thanks!
Hey,
I'm actually raise/folding the turn. I'm turning my hand into a very weak semibluff, so I won't have odds to call vs. his b/3b range on the turn.
Interestingly enough, I am bluffing the river if he calls turn and checks river to me. I expect him to shove the turn with the nuts because the pot is so large already. He might shove sets on the turn (although I am assuming he won't the great majority of the time), and that is specifically the hand I am trying to get him to fold on the river (or some weird 2 pr/pr + draw). *** I am only bluffing a non board pair. If I make a straight I am checking.
thanks a lot for all efforts you put in this series!
I've got my usual questions ready:
At 18 minutes an interesting spot comes up when Prittaygood opens on the CO, 200bb deep effective stacks. The Button (utter milked) 3bets, we get dealt JJ on the BB. Btn 3bets small and has been active before.
What are your thoughts on your 4bet range here? Flatting can't be a mistake obviously, but how does your 4bet range look here? what air: value ratio and which hands would you 4bet for value?
I honestly don't have an answer for this question. It's going to be super polarized and super opponents dependent. I'd rather stack off with AK than JJ though.
~40 mins
You valuebet TPGK at the J8T 3 7 board. To me it really looks like you're valuebetting a 2p+ hand or the obvious straight. because If we had air or wanted to take the pot down, we'd bet either flop or turn. After he has checked backed twice, I wonder if he ever looks you up with a worse hand. Are you not affraid 1) the river improved his range pretty well. 2) he decides to turn a one pair / medium hand into a bluff because we can't really have too many 9's ?
Good points. Interestingly enough, he claimed fold 2 pr. Certainly that river is bad for us, but the reality is I'd rather be betting in that spot than checking. I really don't see him bluff raising almost ever because we can have nines in our range, and, most importantly, they almost always check it to the river.
~49 mins
The AJ hand. Why do you prefer a turn raise over a flop raise? On the flop you could click it back and rep quite a strong hand, your real hand would be disguised. It seems to work a lot better with your position, you could have a balanced turn checking back range. Plus.. you anticipate a big turn bet if you just call (200$) on the flop. The main disadvantage is what to do when he reraises your CiB. But that's a problem on the turn as well.
This is actually a pretty good flop line. I generally stay away from it because we are so deep. I would expect him to react to a flop line by calling and checking most of his range, so we would still need to put more money in on later streets if we wanted to win. I think the best line if we cib would be to check the turn and pray we hit our OESD. However, this pretty much tells our opponent we don't have the nuts, so which line you choose depends on whether you want to bluff his off made hand or try to catch up with your OESD (which might be drawing to a split/dead).
Just watched the second time this vid and this is a great serie. Hope you make more mid - highstakes multipart vids.
As for the 45s where you bet flop 462 and crai turn T - I just think a c/c turn c/c river might be better line. We don't think he would bet/fold the turn for value like close to never, so we fold mostly hands that we beat and they usually have around 5-9 outs.
As we saw he floated the flop and bet/fold the turn so he was pretty determined to win the pot and that's why I think he follows up the bluff and shove the river pretty often. Also i'm pretty sure he won't fire all hands that improve him like Q9s (river 9) so it weights his river bet to even more bluffs?
Just watched the second time this vid and this is a great serie. Hope you make more mid - highstakes multipart vids.
As for the 45s where you bet flop 462 and crai turn T - I just think a c/c turn c/c river might be better line. We don't think he would bet/fold the turn for value like close to never, so we fold mostly hands that we beat and they usually have around 5-9 outs.
As we saw he floated the flop and bet/fold the turn so he was pretty determined to win the pot and that's why I think he follows up the bluff and shove the river pretty often. Also i'm pretty sure he won't fire all hands that improve him like Q9s (river 9) so it weights his river bet to even more bluffs?
I appriciate if you share your thoughts.
Hey,
I went over my thoughts in the video, but to further elaborate, the big is getting pretty big and we would love to be able to take down a pot of that size uncontested. So, although we may induce bluffs on rivers, we have no idea how he will play hands that he does or does not improve. If he has a Q9ss type hand we have no idea what he will do if he pairs up, and we don't know if a TJQKA river help him or not.
