In this video Tim reviews a 4 table $200 NL 6-Max session played by fellow Leggo Pro "bw07507" on Full Tilt. Tim discusses check raising dry flops, playing with minimal reads, and live poker options in Las Vegas.
-4 minutes in, disagree with some of the things you say about 3betting QJo. with position, initiative, and limited history i think being flat called via hands that dominate us will be quite profitable.
assumptions on how he is continuing in HJ vs CO with AQo, AQs, AJs?
-4 minutes in, disagree with some of the things you say about 3betting QJo. with position, initiative, and limited history i think being flat called via hands that dominate us will be quite profitable.
assumptions on how he is continuing in HJ vs CO with AQo, AQs, AJs?
KJs, KQs?
Could you elaborate on how being flatted by hands that dominate ours will be quite profitable? My assumption is that he is flatting most of those hands, maybe 4betting AQ/AQs if he isn't comfortable flatting, but way more likely to flat with limited history. Which is why I think it's a spot where domination is a legitimate concern. If he is mostly 4 bet/folding then QJ is a pretty good hand to 3bet because of the two broadway blockers.
The QT hand at around the 10 minute mark on table 2. I think the river is a check call, as fish who usually minraise the flop and check back the turn here either have a full house or a flush draw. I dont think betting the river with our hand accomplishes anything. Once he insta ships the river obv this is a clear fold. Fish do not play a busted flush draw or a worse 10 like this ever, especially after the turn play and you've virtually bet pot on the river.
Could you elaborate on how being flatted by hands that dominate ours will be quite profitable? My assumption is that he is flatting most of those hands, maybe 4betting AQ/AQs if he isn't comfortable flatting, but way more likely to flat with limited history. Which is why I think it's a spot where domination is a legitimate concern. If he is mostly 4 bet/folding then QJ is a pretty good hand to 3bet because of the two broadway blockers.
he's going to miss more often than he hits. with no feel for how we play i'd expect him not to be getting out of line postflop.
i'd imagine the increased FE from our blockers makes QJo a good hand to 3b even if he isn't playing the 3b/fold game.
say he opens 24% in the hj and defends with this range 99+,ATs+,KJs+,QJs,AQo+,KQo (agree?)
off preflop fe,
ev = 4.5x + (1-x)-9.5
4.5x +9.5x -9.5 = 14x = 9.5/14 = .678
so he needs to fold ~68% of the time for us to breakeven off fe. w/o blockers he folds 69% of time, with them its 74.4.
iirc, you mentioned something with 68s so i'll use that as example.
when he continues and we see a flop i don't think our EV is less with QJo rather than 68s.. you think it is?
At 24:19 (15:38 in your own video) : You hold A5, you check back A87 mono, peel turn, and call river.
You said it was a standard call because all the draws missed etc, but is he really bluffing a 2 offsuit ? Especially with that 1/2 betsizing ? Seems to me like he's never vbetting worse than what you have, and rarely bluffing.
The QT hand at around the 10 minute mark on table 2. I think the river is a check call, as fish who usually minraise the flop and check back the turn here either have a full house or a flush draw. I dont think betting the river with our hand accomplishes anything. Once he insta ships the river obv this is a clear fold. Fish do not play a busted flush draw or a worse 10 like this ever, especially after the turn play and you've virtually bet pot on the river.
Thought about this hand some more and while I still think bet is good I now agree that c/c is also a line with similar ev, since it does let him bluff draws. My concern is that after his snap turn check he could have a lot of other made hands that are going to insta check the river but would call the bet such as mid pair, 88-99, JJ+.
Diagree that he could never have a busted flush draw/straight draw or a worse 10 here, but agree that is is pretty unlikely. I noted that he is playing 50 VPIP and seems very erratic, but forgot to note a pretty important detail about this player that is really relevant to this hand - just prior to the hand at the 5:35 mark he doubled his 55 bb stack by 3bet jamming 55bbs over a 3bb open with A5s and sucking out. I definitely should have mentioned this specifically.
I think the general concept of not folding very strong hands (in absolute value) vs unknowns who are playing very loose and aggro is an important one. In this particular hand I think the decision to call or fold after he jams is going to be very marginal in terms of EV, but I still slightly prefer a call getting 2:1. It's close, imo.
At 24:19 (15:38 in your own video) : You hold A5, you check back A87 mono, peel turn, and call river.
You said it was a standard call because all the draws missed etc, but is he really bluffing a 2 offsuit ? Especially with that 1/2 betsizing ? Seems to me like he's never vbetting worse than what you have, and rarely bluffing.
Villain appeared to not be a regular and bet 1/2 pot, so yea, randoms bluff me in this spot for 1/2 pot all the time. It's not even a terrible bluff against a lot of players, since sometimes people will check back weak pair+diamond hands or mid diamonds and then flat the turn/fold the river. In this hand I am very confident that Brian is going to be good > 25% of the time.
The QT hand at around the 10 minute mark on table 2. I think the river is a check call, as fish who usually minraise the flop and check back the turn here either have a full house or a flush draw. I dont think betting the river with our hand accomplishes anything. Once he insta ships the river obv this is a clear fold. Fish do not play a busted flush draw or a worse 10 like this ever, especially after the turn play and you've virtually bet pot on the river.
I don't like assigning random tards ridiculously tight ranges when they take fishy lines. Sure, his line is very consistent with how a fish would play 22, but to say he can't have have a worse ten is silly. Also, his min-raising range on the flop could pretty much be anything. I've seen 7x play the hand identically (up until the river shove of course) - he minraises the flop to see where he's at. Then he checks the turn behind since he figures you have something, then on the river he probably tries to pick off a busted draw where he would have just checked the river back otherwise.
I think the call is really standard against this player as well, even disregarding the A5s hand that happened prior. You have to put him on squarely a full house to fold, because he if he can have trips there are a lot more combinations of trips that we beat than we lose to. There's always the random bluff factor that you can't discount, and even if you lose you can probably win your money back anyways.
Edit: I also commented on a few hands in the video thread correspending to your 400nl video too so I'd appreciate if you checked that out when you get a chance.
Great vid. Agreed with almost everything you said. Had a couple thoughts.
The QT hand - I think the fish can have JT, T9, and T8 in his range here. After looking at the hand again I think its definitely a call.
The A5hh hand - The river is probably a fold since we are getting a bad price and its rare to see people bet total air 3 streets there. At the moment I was just thinking that he really couldn't rep anything other than 99 or QT since I think most of his 2 pairs dont just pot that river.
The KJo that I squeezed is just a stylistic thing really. KJo is the absolute top of my folding range in that spot so I just decided to 3bet it. I think the guy in the middle was a fish too so he can be calling me with worse Kx and Jx hands.
I remember thinking I played much worse than I actually played right after the session. Guess I was just being results oriented b/c I really didn't think I could have done much differently after rewatching.
he's going to miss more often than he hits. with no feel for how we play i'd expect him not to be getting out of line postflop.
i'd imagine the increased FE from our blockers makes QJo a good hand to 3b even if he isn't playing the 3b/fold game.
say he opens 24% in the hj and defends with this range 99+,ATs+,KJs+,QJs,AQo+,KQo (agree?)
off preflop fe,
ev = 4.5x + (1-x)-9.5
4.5x +9.5x -9.5 = 14x = 9.5/14 = .678
so he needs to fold ~68% of the time for us to breakeven off fe. w/o blockers he folds 69% of time, with them its 74.4.
iirc, you mentioned something with 68s so i'll use that as example.
when he continues and we see a flop i don't think our EV is less with QJo rather than 68s.. you think it is?
First, I thought about this a bit and played around with pokerstove and generally agree that the blockers are significant in this type of spot. Vs a typical tag with typical flat 3bet/4bet stats I think 3betting QJo and 86s are going to have pretty similar EV.
In regards to the % of the time he folds, I would start with a MP opening range of ~20%, not 24. This is my experience with typical regs at 5/10 and 3/6 at least - something like 24% open in co, 20% in MP and 15% UTG. You also have to account for him 4bet bluffing sometime so the % of the time the 3bet is going to work is going to be a lot lower, but the added blockers are definitely important.
Postflop, assuming he 4bets AK always and JJ-AA about half the time, I'd rather have 86s, even though 86s and QJo have very very similar preflop hot/cold equity vs that range. You really don't have good equity when you flop top pair with QJ (similar to when you flop top pair with 86s), but with 86s it is way easier to flop 2 pair/trips/flush/straight compared with QJo. You can't even bet/call Qxx on the flop vs that range since you are crushed vs his c/r range. It's also a lot harder to induce bluffs on a Qxx flop compared to a low 8xx flop.
Cliffs - I do prefer having 86s postflop in this particular spot, but because of blockers I think 3betting 86s and QJo in this spot have very similar EV. Very good comments, ty.
I would like to hear more about the AJo hands @ 28:00 . Can we find a easy fold on Turn/River if he bet ? We show so much strength on the flop by just calling oop that I never see villain villain bluff us here.
I would like to hear more about the AJo hands @ 28:00 . Can we find a easy fold on Turn/River if he bet ? We show so much strength on the flop by just calling oop that I never see villain villain bluff us here.
I wouldn't say it's an easy turn fold, but yea I think I'd be inclined to fold the turn here without any history since we are repping KJ/AJ+ very strongly here in most regs eyes.
