| laurenman |
I canīt see more after the 84o hand. |
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| lancelott_ |
didn`t really liked this particualr video, too many loose-spewy unreasonable plays - A6s pre call vs passive shorterstack MPvsUTG seems terrible, 84o is very meh (if he is clicking buttons like that in spewmode, why the *** would you cold 4B OOP w 84o, plus you do need to randomize your cold 4Bs and doing it with blockers is so much better), tons of ~anytwo BU opens vs laggy aggro players behind, T2s OOP 3B with meh timing (you said he is gonna bluff/play back a lot now, yet still 3B T2s OOP LOL), etc etc.. cmon
pls a bit more solid/serious, better prepared footage next one
gl |
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| shootaa |
CTS made the exact same play in a video 2 years ago, which got me curious abot the expected value of such situations. So let's experiment with the expected value equation of this spot and see if it's +EV.
Here's the EV of my play with my assumptions (I'll make his range stronger than it is, especially given the A6cc hand later in the video where he raises a weak top pair on the flop when my range is similarly strong looking. This means he should have even less stronger made hands in his flop calling range, but I'll ignore that for the sake of your argument that my play here is a losing one.):
I'm assuming that if he plays KQ, KQs, KJs, half his combinations of 99, and QJs by floating the flop (since only better hands will call his shove and he won't fold out worse) that means he has at least 27 combinations of hands that he'll fold to a turn shove.
Because he never has AK here, his value hands that can call my shove are the combinations of AA he slowplays, KK-TT (again, he shoves some of these pre-flop, but for your argument's sake let's assume he slowplays his entire value range) AQs, and AQ, which means there are 43 combinations of hands with which he'll call my shove.
This gives us a total of 70 combinations of hands which he'll play this way and our EV of bluffing is as follows:
He folds (27/70) * 100% = 38.57%
He calls (43/70) * 100% = 61.42%
I'm risking 224 to win 363.
EV(shove) = (363*0.3857) - (224*0.6142)
EV(shove) = 140.01 - 137.58
EV(shove) = 2.43
So even with the generous assumptions about his slowplaying range in place, I've shown this play to be +EV. I hope you read this reply because there are some pretty cool spots to learn about, even when the chips don't go your way. |
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| laurenman |
probably you should ask if the 4b with 84o is ev+... all the hand is superspew. |
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| aejones |
probably you should ask if the 4b with 84o is ev+... all the hand is superspew.
I think Reid would be able to answer in a more articulate way if you were better able to phrase a more constructive question. |
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| shootaa |
didn`t really liked this particualr video, too many loose-spewy unreasonable plays - A6s pre call vs passive shorterstack MPvsUTG seems terrible, 84o is very meh (if he is clicking buttons like that in spewmode, why the *** would you cold 4B OOP w 84o, plus you do need to randomize your cold 4Bs and doing it with blockers is so much better), tons of ~anytwo BU opens vs laggy aggro players behind, T2s OOP 3B with meh timing (you said he is gonna bluff/play back a lot now, yet still 3B T2s OOP LOL), etc etc.. cmon
pls a bit more solid/serious, better prepared footage next one
gl
RE 84o: If his range is wider, the bluff will work more often. See above.
RE T2s: Blockers are a little better. Check out what it does combinatorially in PokerStove. I know other coaches talk about blockers a lot and they definitely help, but I'm of the opinion that the particular situation is vastly more important than the 2% edge 4-betting a hand with blockers gives to you and if I did have A2dd here instead of T2dd, I would've been happier to 4-bet it. I also said that IF he plays back by re-raising pre-flop that I expect him to have air very often. I went through this video literally five times before it was released and I'm always very serious about anything I do for Leggo or any poker teaching medium I'm in. For you to not like one five-bet shove and say what you said about me isn't fair, in my opinion.
So for this hand, I'm going all-in with T2dd, risking 370 to win 148. When called, given my assumptions about his value range being something like half the combinations of 99, TT-JJ, half the combinations of QQ, AKo, and AKs, I will have a 26.94% chance to win. I'm going to solve for the percentage of times that our opponent needs to fold for the shove to be profitable.
EV(shove) = (percentage our opponent folds and we win)(what we win if he folds) + (percentage of times he calls and we win)(what we would win) + (percentage of times he calls and we lose)(what we risk)
EV(shove) = (x)(138) + (1-x)(0.2694)(473.1) + (1-x)(1 - 0.2694)(-381.1)
EV(shove) = 138x + 127.45 - 127.45x + (-278.43) - (-278.43x)
EV(shove) = 288.98x - 150.98
Becuase we are solving for a breakeven point, we may set our equation equal to zero and solve for x, where x is the percentage of times our opponent will have to fold to our shove to make our play breakeven.
0 = 288.98x - 150.98
150.98 = 288.98x
x = 150.98/288.98
x = 0.522
This equation shows that he only has to be bluffing slight over half of the time (52.2%) for this shove to be breakeven. Given our aggressive history, I'd say that this is easily the case. Obviously the answer is a bit subjective because we can't say what his exact thought process was at the time. However, I think somewhere closer to 60+% would be around the number I'd see before I considered the shove to be a bit iffy, while this one seems pretty great and almost certainly +EV. |
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| laurenman |
I think Reid would be able to answer in a more articulate way if you were better able to phrase a more constructive question.
No problem at all, im the stuipid who pays for this vids , 95% of the vids of this pag are awful or simply bad. Random vids with random moves in every vid, thats incredible. Sorry for my english, i dont speak it very well.
pd: please put hud in the vids. |
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| Probability |
Hey laurenman,
Reid spent a lot of time posting to explain his point of view and provide reasoning behind the plays he made. Is there something in particular you feel was not explained fully in his posts that you would like him to expound on? If so, perhaps you can outline exactly what you want explained in your next response. Perhaps you could argue your point through EV calculations to prove you are correct?
While LeggoPoker values you as an active member and contributer it appears you are bashing LeggoPoker, and Reid, without providing any reasons besides the "splashy random play" that Reid has already given you detailed feedback on. Please try to be less confrontational with the coaches who work very hard on videos and take extra time to post clear, articulate, responses to further questions.
It does appear you have a lot of feedback to give on this video and on Leggo in general. Please don't hesitate to contact me via PM so I can try and make LeggoPoker better for you and other members.
Regards,
Matt |
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| baba |
You chose to (probably) 3barrel 22 on a 976 flop or a flop very similar to that when the pfr c/c the flop and I would do the same. However i would also frequently c/c such a flop as the pfr with a hand like 78 (probably what the villian was doing in the vid also) Do you think villians c/c flop line (with 78 etc) is too transparent/exploitable these days? How would you play it as part of your range in villians spot?
Thanks Reid! |
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| baba |
Ditto to AeJones/Matts prior comments. Please try to be more constructive with criticisms Laurenman. We want to be encouraging video producers to answer our questions! |
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| bugsycarrot |
No problem at all, im the stuipid who pays for this vids , 95% of the vids of this pag are awful or simply bad. Random vids with random moves in every vid, thats incredible. Sorry for my english, i dont speak it very well.
pd: please put hud in the vids.
Obviously everyone can have their own opinions, so here's mine.
First of, I think this video is great. Even though it may seem like there are some preflop spews, but when you really think about it and analyse it, it's not. All of plays in this video are backed by logical reasoning. Sure, some of it might not be the 'ABSOLUTE' the best play, but they are still profitable plays.
You can't expect to be playing for your absolute hand value all the time. I feel in this video (a short 45min time span), Reid did a good job of trying to identify and show us spots where you can think a bit more deeply about this game. If you want to improve and become good/great, you need to be open minded and be willing to experiment.
Just my 2c.
PS Looking forward to Part 2! |
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| laurenman |
"You can't expect to be playing for your absolute hand value all the time"
Believe me , im not a nit if you said something like this. But im not an agrotard who start 3/4 betting random hands. |
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| Greedsmith |
I want your book now!
Please sent me a book and destroy all other copies. ;) |
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| sintakonte |
haha, according to the first comments i was so sure eunjong called you down
if your bluff would have worked they celebrate you as a hero - so don't worry :P
i really liked this video a lot because you explained nearly any reasonable situation very well and clear
thx |
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| lenasrokas |
in 84o hand:
shootaa, u think maybe just checking with intention of giving up when 6s come on turn bringing FD wouldn't be better idea then bluffing? i mean, if he has KJ, KQ, QJ is more likely that he has them suited, right? if he picks up FD he won't ever fold. if turn were 6c i think it's better spot to bluff. + when FD comes on turn it's more likely u will barell, because u might've picked up more equity.
and how much will your book cost and will it be oriented only on middle/high stakes crowd? |
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| simon2312 |
liked the video a lot, I think you're the best instructor for msnl along with ben and oldjude here at leggo.
for the 84 hand, I think if I do 4b here then postflop is played totally fine for the reasons you mentioned |
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| poochie89 |
hi shoota, solid vid as always at first...
i wanted to ask you the same question as baba did, you unfortunately didnt aswer it....
in villain shoes on that 976 flop (or something like that), do you consider c/c overpairs (and maybe like flushdraws with overs) some of the time since the button can barrel you of your hole range?
thanks |
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| shootaa |
hi shoota, solid vid as always at first...
i wanted to ask you the same question as baba did, you unfortunately didnt aswer it....
in villain shoes on that 976 flop (or something like that), do you consider c/c overpairs (and maybe like flushdraws with overs) some of the time since the button can barrel you of your hole range?
thanks
Hey guys, poochie89 and Barry, especially! Last night a gigantic lightening bolt landed about 30 feet from my room and my cable and internet insta-went out, so sorry about the late replies!
What I wanted to convey about this type of board is that most people do not have a balanced range in this spot. Check-calling things like 87 seems fine because it's unlikely you'll get value from many worse hands and many people will bluff into you. The problem is, as you saw in the video if he did have such a hand, is that there are a ton of scary turn and river cards to navigate IF people have a balanced bluffing range. However, most people just bet when checked to, especially at MSNL and SSNL on these boards. It's a great spot to bluff because the pre-flop raiser will be giving up often, and usually at MSNL they are giving up the vast majority of the time and if they are check-calling a hand like 87, they will fold on the river often, finally giving you credit for a hand, or they will get scared when something like the turn Q comes down in the hand in the video.
It's important to mix in some hands you're willing to take some heat with here against a player you believe to have too wide a betting range here. You can even check-raise bluff the flop. Think about it. If you're the pre-flop raiser here, and you know Villain's range for bluffing includes hands as strong as 22 that he probably won't fight back with for worry of being shoved into on such a draw heavy board, it could be an extremely profitable play.
In short, boards like this often get auto-piloted when I think there's a ton to be made by exploiting extremely wide ranges. |
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| shootaa |
liked the video a lot, I think you're the best instructor for msnl along with ben and oldjude here at leggo.
for the 84 hand, I think if I do 4b here then postflop is played totally fine for the reasons you mentioned
Thanks man. Those guys are beasts, so that makes me feel nice. |
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| shootaa |
"You can't expect to be playing for your absolute hand value all the time"
Believe me , im not a nit if you said something like this. But im not an agrotard who start 3/4 betting random hands.
Nothing I do in poker is completely random. There are very reasonable justifications for every part of my play in the 84o hand. I'm glad you're not married to the concept of blockers or the fact that if I'm called by a better hand that I'm drawing dead. I think I've explained myself well though and my thought processes. You're welcome to disagree with my interpretations of his range and I'd listen to your disagreement because I'd view it as an opportunity to better my game, which is what all this is about. |
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| laurenman |
Postflop add to the rank AJ and ATs por example.
And preflop is just burning money, you cant said your not play random when you 4b with a hand like this.
And please answer why you dont use any hud in the vid. |
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| shootaa |
haha, according to the first comments i was so sure eunjong called you down
if your bluff would have worked they celebrate you as a hero - so don't worry :P
i really liked this video a lot because you explained nearly any reasonable situation very well and clear
thx
ROFL yeah, hero to zero when called :/ Thanks man. |
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| shootaa |
I want your book now!
Please sent me a book and destroy all other copies. ;)
LOL, I have thought about just destroying them all very often actually :/ I won't though, so keep an eye on Leggo for release information. I'm hoping to have them printed and ready for order in a week! |
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| shootaa |
in 84o hand:
shootaa, u think maybe just checking with intention of giving up when 6s come on turn bringing FD wouldn't be better idea then bluffing? i mean, if he has KJ, KQ, QJ is more likely that he has them suited, right? if he picks up FD he won't ever fold. if turn were 6c i think it's better spot to bluff. + when FD comes on turn it's more likely u will barell, because u might've picked up more equity.
and how much will your book cost and will it be oriented only on middle/high stakes crowd?
Yeah, I agree that he wouldn't be folding those huge combo draws on the turn as well. I also think he wouldn't have or slowplay all the hands I put into his range to call me on the flop though, given pre-flop. But definitely a valid point about the turned flush draw that I over-looked.
All the book release information will be out all over the place very soon. It's marketable to everyone. It's very theory-based with the idea being that the game will be constantly evolving. So the book is about learning how to think about poker and not how to learn some system or some set of plays to use that work well for the time being and maybe not so well four years down the line. Just as poker has evolved in the last four years, this book is aimed at keeping up with it's evolution and making sure that everyone who reads it keeps up as well.
I'll have a lot more details posted everywhere soon. It'll be very hard to miss :) Keep an eye on my blog though for details. |
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| lewialex |
Reid,
Eunjong is a weird spewy player who flats a lot of 4bets/gets it in light. Your EV calcs seem solid, but I think I would rather could 4 AQ for value against this dude rather than bluff him.
Anyway, great vid as usual. Keep it up! |
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| shootaa |
Reid,
Eunjong is a weird spewy player who flats a lot of 4bets/gets it in light. Your EV calcs seem solid, but I think I would rather could 4 AQ for value against this dude rather than bluff him.
Anyway, great vid as usual. Keep it up!
Yeah I agree for sure now. Thanks man! |
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| freefalling80 |
I am curious as to what adjustments you can make vrs uyoung jung and players like him? I find these players very hard to play against because it is so hard to put them on a range of hands thanks and sweet vid i learned a ton! Def. ignore all the haters need to listen to what you say and not just look at what you are doing. |
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| freefalling80 |
Just thought of a 2nd ? In the hand where you are super deep and end up winning the hand I am very curious as to what you thought of villians line he ended up having A10o. To me I would think it would be super hard to get to showdown and being oop that deep seems like the flop could be a fold? Also how would you be playing your strong hands in his position sets and str8s vrs. your flop raise? very interesting hand that shows the power of position. Oh just thought of one other thing, had you not improved what kind of river cards are you betting as a bluff? and what river cards would you likely be giving up on? Thanks |
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| shootaa |
Adjustments to make against players with very wide ranges would be making more bluffs because he'll have more air in his range in certain spots and thinner value bets because he'll have more marginal hands in his range. You can also take it the complete other direction and play only very good hands against their wider range and maximize value. I prefer widening your range if it won't be too wide to be spewy (he plays super well and will take advantage of our wide range). Widening our range instead of playing tight is also a lot more fun, but that might be my personal preference and not something that stylistically appeals to you.
As far as the 86 vs AT hand, I think I have a lot of options on the turn depending on how I view his flop call range. If I think it's very drawy, then I might take a free card to improve vs his made hands and call some rivers. Because we're deep and like I said, I think his flop call represents a lot more made hands because there are fewer hands with which he is comfortable three betting on the flop and getting more action. So as far as bluffs go for me, I think a lot of my perceived range will be spade draws and it will balance well for me when I'd like to value bet spades in spots like this.
Re: the flop fold, I think that's ridiculous and I think that he played the hand very well and standardly. Versus good aggressive opponents deep stacked and out of position, you can't just bet/fold hands as strong and as close to the top of your range on such a drawy board because plays like the one I made are going to be in the in position player's arsenal.
Hope this all made sense. Let me know if something doesn't. |
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| Franzkovic |
I think this video was great (as pretty much all vids by shootaa). All you guys that keep saying "spew" should start thinking out of the box. Do not allways just think about your own hand but try to include gameflow and your opponents handrange.
There are however two plays where I disagree with shootaa. Especially the T2dd hand ... I dont think he is bluff 4betting here nearly as often as you think. For one your 2nd three bet in a row makes your hand actually look stronger and secondly he might also widen his value 4betting range vs you if he thinks you are out of line.
Second play I dont like is the cbet with KQ in the protected pot.
Keep it up man |
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| ourrr |
why you don't automuck? in which cases you show your cards? is there any case where its EV+ to show your holecards?
the most of the leggo coaches dont automuck. |
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| dougiedan678 |
I like this video. |
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| jaykay25 |
This is one of those videos that confirms in my mind that Leggo is the best poker training site on the net. What really amazes me is that the pros spend more time answering amorphous complaints by randos than other sites *AHEM cardrunners AHEM* spend answering serious, thoughtful questions. |
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| jaykay25 |
2 questions
1) @26mins or so, Eunjong shoves A6cc w/ weak top pair + nut flush draw. Do you dislike as a general rule shoving in a 3bet pot w/o the lead vs a cbet with weak top pair + fl dr? Or was ur critique more contextual? I feel like in those spots when the turn and river brick off i'm facing a 3rd barrel or turn shove and holding a weak A and hating life b/c now all i beat is a bluff.
2) How do u develop such sophisticated metagame reads (kinda) like the one u used on bjorn fjord to narrow his 3bet range so precisely? Surely it has to be based on more than it being the 2nd time u 3bet him + u had been aggressive preflop.
Thanx homie, cant wait for part 2. |
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| IntoTheRain |
Reid,
Thanks for the sick Video! Your 84 shoves seem crazy but the maths of it all makes sense.
Can you tell when you made this all in move, Did you do all the calculations in your head or calculator to know its a positive EV shove? OR have you done alot of background away from the tables studies and math to know off by heart that is a positive EV shove? |
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| IntoTheRain |
"EV(shove) = (x)(138) + (1-x)(0.2694)(473.1) + (1-x)(1 - 0.2694)(-381.1)"
Reid also i have been trying to do the math you just laid out, How did you get the -381.1 number? |
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| shootaa |
why you don't automuck? in which cases you show your cards? is there any case where its EV+ to show your holecards?
the most of the leggo coaches dont automuck.
Sometimes, it's very rare, and usually against weaker players, I'll show a hand. If I think they'll tilt and/or I won't play with them often in the future and they won't be able to correctly adjust to the information I show them (and partly the other players at the table too), then there's potentially a lot of EV in showing. The most obvious case for showing with the most benefits and least downside is heads up versus a weaker player. |
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| shootaa |
Reid,
Thanks for the sick Video! Your 84 shoves seem crazy but the maths of it all makes sense.
Can you tell when you made this all in move, Did you do all the calculations in your head or calculator to know its a positive EV shove? OR have you done alot of background away from the tables studies and math to know off by heart that is a positive EV shove?
Basically, what I had to risk to make him fold all the combinations of gutters he had made it seem like a pretty easy shove to me. If you put my calculation in pokerstove and take out some offsuit gutter combinations, you will see how drastically the EV of the play changes. That's a lot of combinations, but I felt like I knew my opponent. At the time I didn't know the exact EV of the situation. Intuitively to me, it seemed not that close given what I thought about his flop range. |
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| shootaa |
2 questions
1) @26mins or so, Eunjong shoves A6cc w/ weak top pair + nut flush draw. Do you dislike as a general rule shoving in a 3bet pot w/o the lead vs a cbet with weak top pair + fl dr? Or was ur critique more contextual? I feel like in those spots when the turn and river brick off i'm facing a 3rd barrel or turn shove and holding a weak A and hating life b/c now all i beat is a bluff.
2) How do u develop such sophisticated metagame reads (kinda) like the one u used on bjorn fjord to narrow his 3bet range so precisely? Surely it has to be based on more than it being the 2nd time u 3bet him + u had been aggressive preflop.
Thanx homie, cant wait for part 2.
1. I just meant that given the 84o hand and what he should think of my range, shoving a hand where cards that give him the nuts and me semi-bluffing equity and make me more likely to semi-bluff all-in on the turn seems terrible. He makes me fold hands like I had and very rarely gets called by worse. His call on the flop obviously indicates strength, but his play in general seems like the worst choice of calling or shoving.
2. Yeah, that's definitely what I based things on. I'm not as sure of his game specifically to be absolutely certain of what I was saying. What I was saying is more of an extrapolation from the general MSNL regulars with whom I've played, which at the time, was my best source of information. I can definitely be convinced that this play was too thin and that it's a small losing play. I don't think that it's as bad as most people are saying though, especially at 2/4. At 5/10 or higher, I would definitely agree it's ultra bad because I think people there are better at widening their value ranges for 4-betting and calling a shove and that that adjustment is less likely made as well at 2/4. |
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| shootaa |
I like this video.
TY sir :D |
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| shootaa |
"EV(shove) = (x)(138) + (1-x)(0.2694)(473.1) + (1-x)(1 - 0.2694)(-381.1)"
Reid also i have been trying to do the math you just laid out, How did you get the -381.1 number?
It should be what I would lose after I shove over the man's 4-bet. We don't count the money I put in from 3-betting, since it's already in the pot. Hopefully, I added it correctly. I've certainly made addition mistakes before though! So feel free to check my math. |
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